$8 billion for a strait: if the deal goes through, crypto could finally catch its breath
The Strait of Hormuz, a lifeline for the whole world, may be about to reopen! The latest news is that the U.S. and Iran are discussing an $8 billion deal: the U.S. would unfreeze funds, while Iran would reopen the strait, halt attacks on Gulf shipping, and the U.S. would lift some of its restrictions. Trump is meeting Qatar’s prime minister on Monday to discuss the deal. Vance is pushing for it, but reportedly several senior officials disagree.
Pay attention to one critical detail: the deal doesn’t touch Iran’s nuclear program. That means it’s not a peace agreement—it’s a payment for safe passage. Peace bought this way is the least durable kind.
But markets don’t care whether it’s durable; they care about expectations. One-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude passes through this strait. If shipping resumes, oil prices will fall first, followed by inflation expectations. Only then will bets on a December rate hike begin to ease. Once the pressure from interest rates lets up, the Nasdaq, semiconductors, and crypto will have room to rebound.
On the other hand, if Monday’s talks collapse or those senior officials block the deal, oil prices will surge again, inflation will remain sticky, rate-hike expectations will return, and risk assets will take another hit.
Watch oil prices first, then U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, and only then the market. Don’t rush in as soon as the news breaks—stories like this can reverse three times in a single day!
What should you do when U.S. stocks open tonight? Join Fish Boss’s chatroom for real-time updates!
#AI芯片股重挫纳指周跌3.4% #黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查
The Strait of Hormuz, a lifeline for the whole world, may be about to reopen! The latest news is that the U.S. and Iran are discussing an $8 billion deal: the U.S. would unfreeze funds, while Iran would reopen the strait, halt attacks on Gulf shipping, and the U.S. would lift some of its restrictions. Trump is meeting Qatar’s prime minister on Monday to discuss the deal. Vance is pushing for it, but reportedly several senior officials disagree.
Pay attention to one critical detail: the deal doesn’t touch Iran’s nuclear program. That means it’s not a peace agreement—it’s a payment for safe passage. Peace bought this way is the least durable kind.
But markets don’t care whether it’s durable; they care about expectations. One-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude passes through this strait. If shipping resumes, oil prices will fall first, followed by inflation expectations. Only then will bets on a December rate hike begin to ease. Once the pressure from interest rates lets up, the Nasdaq, semiconductors, and crypto will have room to rebound.
On the other hand, if Monday’s talks collapse or those senior officials block the deal, oil prices will surge again, inflation will remain sticky, rate-hike expectations will return, and risk assets will take another hit.
Watch oil prices first, then U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, and only then the market. Don’t rush in as soon as the news breaks—stories like this can reverse three times in a single day!
What should you do when U.S. stocks open tonight? Join Fish Boss’s chatroom for real-time updates!
#AI芯片股重挫纳指周跌3.4% #黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查
