Price now: ∼$74.100 - $74.600
12h low: $73.444 - $73.477
12h high: ∼$76.200
24h drop: -1.4% to -2.37%
Weekly drop: -4.45% to -4.89%It’s the 5th straight week in the red for BTC.
It fell 13.6% in 5 weeks, from $86.503 to $74.754.
WHAT HAPPENED IN THESE 12 HOURS?1.
THE SUNDAY NIGHT FLASH CRASH
In just 15 minutes, on Sunday at 21:00 UTC, BTC plunged from $75.690 to $73.477.
It was the lowest level since August 21.
Why?
It wasn’t crypto.
It was the weekend:
Nvidia scandal revealed: CEO Jensen Huang is under investigation over alleged ties to an executive whom the US believes was passing information to China
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations with Iran are stalled, calling them "outrageous". Crypto was the only market open on Sunday, so it absorbed all the panic.
2. MASSIVE LIQUIDATIONS: +$1.100M
More than $1.14B in positions were liquidated in 24h; 90% were longs (bets that prices would rise).
In just 1 hour, $745M was liquidated, $715M of it in longs.
ETH was hit hardest: ∼$500M liquidated, versus ∼$305M in BTC.
One whale lost $61.4M in the move: they had $253M in longs, and $140M was liquidated.
3. LOST KEY SUPPORT LEVELS
It closed the week at $74.754, below the 50-week average ($75.222 - $75.492) for the first time in 7 weeks
.It's below Strategy's (MicroStrategy's) average cost: $75.451.
Strategy has 849.327 BTC and is now sitting on ∼$500M in unrealized losses.
It's also below the average cost basis of short-term holders: $75.691
.4. ALTS FELL MORE THAN BTC
ETH: $2.133 (-4.4% to -5.6%), touched $2.063 - $2.080, its lowest level since August 19.
XRP: $1.10 (-4.9% to -6.3%), touched $1.08, also its lowest level since August.
SOL: down approximately 3%.
BTC fell less than alts, a sign that people take refuge in BTC when there's fear.
5. THE MACRO BACKDROP WEIGHING ON MARKETS
Spot BTC ETFs: -$1.280M last week, their worst week since June.
BlackRock's IBIT has now seen outflows for 6 straight days.
US employment came in stronger than expected: unemployment at 4.1%, +165,000 jobs.
That raised the probability of the Fed RAISING rates in December to ∼80% (up from 72%).
Fear & Greed Index: 29, in "Fear". Social media sentiment: "bearish" for BTC, "extremely bearish" for ETH.
LEVELS TO WATCH NOW
Support:$73.500 - $73.150 (Sunday's low + 200-day average)$70.505$67.292
Resistance:$75.545$76.927 (200-day average)$77.430 (100-day average)$79.292 (50-day average)If it loses $73.500, analysts warn it could quickly head for $70.000.
If it recovers $75.500, things should calm down a little.
WHAT'S COMING IN THE NEXT 12H?
Tuesday: US CPI (inflation) - 8:30 ET.
In September, it was 3.7% year over year.
If it comes in hot, that's more pressure on BTC.
Friday:
US PPI.
Today: The Wall Street open will show whether the weekend panic spreads to stocks or was just crypto.
IN A SENTENCE:BTC didn't fall because of something in crypto; it fell because it was the only market open when two macro news stories broke on Sunday, catching everyone with leveraged long positions.
It's holding at $74k for now, but fear is high and ETFs aren't buying.
