NVDA -4.9%, AMD fights back +2.9%: money is switching lanes
Put simply, there’s one big picture in chip stocks tonight: Huang’s side is still sliding, while money is flowing toward AMD. I’m leaning a little toward AMD.
Here’s what I’m seeing: AMD is at 460.86, up 2.85% over 24 hours, with a high of 463.36, a low of 440, and volume of 75.8 million.
NVDA is at 178.63, down 4.87% over 24 hours, with a high of 188.16, a low of 175.68, and volume of 595 million.
Overnight: AMD +1.7%, Broadcom and Micron +0.8%, Intel +1.2%, SOXX +0.6%—only NVDA lagged, down 3.5%.
Today, Oppenheimer upgraded AMD to Outperform.
AMD has real strengths: Q3 revenue of $13.38 billion, up 45% and a record; data center revenue of $8.5 billion, up 97% and making up 64% of the total; EPS of $2.09, beating the $1.95 estimate; and Q4 guidance of $17 billion, up 66%.
The bears have a point, too: AMD was hammered just a week ago. It plunged 17.26% on Thursday to close at 404.40, then rose 11.04% Friday to close at 449.04. It’s still down 11% over five days and about 30% below its 52-week high of 658.52.
NVDA reports after the close on November 17. Expectations are EPS of 2.47 and revenue of $108.8 billion. If it beats, this divergence could reverse in a single day.
My take: this doesn’t mean AI is over. The market is valuing things separately—scandals as bad news, and earnings on their merits.
AMD’s $17 billion Q4 guidance represents real business. NVDA’s problem is people, not chips; sentiment can weigh on the stock, but it can’t erase the orders.
But I’m not pretending to be a bull: this rebound has only recovered half the drop from 404. If it can’t hold 463.36, this could be a one-day wonder.
I’ve taken a small position in AMD. If it falls below 449, I’m out. If it holds above 463.36 into the close, I’ll look at the 488.78 level.
I’m leaving NVDA alone. I won’t touch it before the November 17 earnings report. If it falls below 175.68, it could slide toward 170.
Will it hold above 463.36 and push up to 488.78, or fall below 449 and fizzle back to 440? I’m betting on the first. What about you?
$AMD $NVDA
#AMD #USStocks
Put simply, there’s one big picture in chip stocks tonight: Huang’s side is still sliding, while money is flowing toward AMD. I’m leaning a little toward AMD.
Here’s what I’m seeing: AMD is at 460.86, up 2.85% over 24 hours, with a high of 463.36, a low of 440, and volume of 75.8 million.
NVDA is at 178.63, down 4.87% over 24 hours, with a high of 188.16, a low of 175.68, and volume of 595 million.
Overnight: AMD +1.7%, Broadcom and Micron +0.8%, Intel +1.2%, SOXX +0.6%—only NVDA lagged, down 3.5%.
Today, Oppenheimer upgraded AMD to Outperform.
AMD has real strengths: Q3 revenue of $13.38 billion, up 45% and a record; data center revenue of $8.5 billion, up 97% and making up 64% of the total; EPS of $2.09, beating the $1.95 estimate; and Q4 guidance of $17 billion, up 66%.
The bears have a point, too: AMD was hammered just a week ago. It plunged 17.26% on Thursday to close at 404.40, then rose 11.04% Friday to close at 449.04. It’s still down 11% over five days and about 30% below its 52-week high of 658.52.
NVDA reports after the close on November 17. Expectations are EPS of 2.47 and revenue of $108.8 billion. If it beats, this divergence could reverse in a single day.
My take: this doesn’t mean AI is over. The market is valuing things separately—scandals as bad news, and earnings on their merits.
AMD’s $17 billion Q4 guidance represents real business. NVDA’s problem is people, not chips; sentiment can weigh on the stock, but it can’t erase the orders.
But I’m not pretending to be a bull: this rebound has only recovered half the drop from 404. If it can’t hold 463.36, this could be a one-day wonder.
I’ve taken a small position in AMD. If it falls below 449, I’m out. If it holds above 463.36 into the close, I’ll look at the 488.78 level.
I’m leaving NVDA alone. I won’t touch it before the November 17 earnings report. If it falls below 175.68, it could slide toward 170.
Will it hold above 463.36 and push up to 488.78, or fall below 449 and fizzle back to 440? I’m betting on the first. What about you?
$AMD $NVDA
#AMD #USStocks
