Everyone, $NEAR has made things painful again.
Current price: 3.557, 24-hour change: -3.735%. The range over the previous 20 days was 5.459 to 3.442,
with the price now at the 5.70th percentile, right near the lower end.
The 11-08 low of 3.442 was the bottom of the range. Today's low was 3.457—it held, then bounced back to 3.557 on lower volume.
What I'm watching isn't today's little green candle, but the fact that trading volume has steadily declined since the high-volume candle on the fourth, down to just 24% of what it was.
Volume pulled back first.
On 11-04, volume was 758.85 million; by 11-07, it was down to 183.08 million,
a 76% drop. Even on the 11-08 rebound, volume only reached 312.14 million, 41.13% of the level on the fourth.
Open interest was up 3.22% over 24 hours, while notional value was down 2.83%.
Honestly, I didn't understand this combination of open interest and notional value at first glance.
More contracts but less money means small orders are being added while large orders are pulling out. Liquidity is being drained layer by layer.
Money leaves before people do.
The funding rate is still positive at 0.010000%, so longs are paying to hold their positions even as prices fall. It's not a large amount, but the direction is clear.
It's like opening the gates of a reservoir: the water level is dropping faster than the gates are closing. There's still a little water left in the basin, but no more is coming from upstream.
The pool is only so big. Whoever's closest to the pot gets served first, and there's not much left in it now. The bulls and bears stopped disagreeing about direction a while ago; now it's about who can hold out.
On the same day, $BTC was down 1.556% and $ETH was down 4.940%. It didn't fall without reason, and it wasn't alone.
My stance at this level is to keep an eye on it, not to pay more attention than before. Low-volume basing is especially deceptive: a price that can't fall any further and one that nobody wants can look the same. We'll need to see the volume in the next few candles to know where the support is.
Do you think it can't fall any further, or that nobody wants it? Let's talk in the comments.
#NEAR #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
Current price: 3.557, 24-hour change: -3.735%. The range over the previous 20 days was 5.459 to 3.442,
with the price now at the 5.70th percentile, right near the lower end.
The 11-08 low of 3.442 was the bottom of the range. Today's low was 3.457—it held, then bounced back to 3.557 on lower volume.
What I'm watching isn't today's little green candle, but the fact that trading volume has steadily declined since the high-volume candle on the fourth, down to just 24% of what it was.
Volume pulled back first.
On 11-04, volume was 758.85 million; by 11-07, it was down to 183.08 million,
a 76% drop. Even on the 11-08 rebound, volume only reached 312.14 million, 41.13% of the level on the fourth.
Open interest was up 3.22% over 24 hours, while notional value was down 2.83%.
Honestly, I didn't understand this combination of open interest and notional value at first glance.
More contracts but less money means small orders are being added while large orders are pulling out. Liquidity is being drained layer by layer.
Money leaves before people do.
The funding rate is still positive at 0.010000%, so longs are paying to hold their positions even as prices fall. It's not a large amount, but the direction is clear.
It's like opening the gates of a reservoir: the water level is dropping faster than the gates are closing. There's still a little water left in the basin, but no more is coming from upstream.
The pool is only so big. Whoever's closest to the pot gets served first, and there's not much left in it now. The bulls and bears stopped disagreeing about direction a while ago; now it's about who can hold out.
On the same day, $BTC was down 1.556% and $ETH was down 4.940%. It didn't fall without reason, and it wasn't alone.
My stance at this level is to keep an eye on it, not to pay more attention than before. Low-volume basing is especially deceptive: a price that can't fall any further and one that nobody wants can look the same. We'll need to see the volume in the next few candles to know where the support is.
Do you think it can't fall any further, or that nobody wants it? Let's talk in the comments.
#NEAR #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
