On November 8, Jensen Huang apologized and the board launched an investigation, but what sent the market down was the China revenue outlook. The investigation concerns a foreign intelligence operation, and responsibility for handling it has been handed to an independent board committee and outside legal counsel. The board said there is currently no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised. What really matters is whether the investigation will change regulators’ attitude toward business in China. On November 4, members of Congress jointly sent him a letter asking him to attend a closed-door briefing on November 18.

The bottleneck is at both ends of the channel: the U.S. controls export licenses, while China controls import approvals. Around 600,000 H200 chips are being held in Hong Kong. A server equipped with eight H200s is quoted at more than RMB 6 million, while last quarter’s revenue guidance of $108 billion did not include data center revenue from China.

On November 17, watch the gap between data center revenue in the earnings report and the guidance. On November 18, watch for any legislative text, subpoena proceedings, or Commerce Ministry restrictions on approvals after the briefing.

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