Tomorrow night at 21:30: October CPI, the final inflation data before the December rate decision
How important is this report?
October nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, pushing the probability of a December rate hike to around 80%. The market now expects the Fed could still raise rates twice more in this cycle, by 25 basis points each time.
ING’s forecast is straightforward: both headline and core CPI could rise 0.3% month over month—enough to make a December hike the most likely outcome.
Unless October CPI comes in significantly below expectations, or the November jobs report on December 4 shows a marked slowdown, the market will likely have fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike by the time of next month’s policy meeting.
CPI doesn’t need to come in scorching hot. As long as monthly inflation holds at 0.3%, a December hike will be all but a sure thing.
We’ll know tomorrow night.
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
How important is this report?
October nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, pushing the probability of a December rate hike to around 80%. The market now expects the Fed could still raise rates twice more in this cycle, by 25 basis points each time.
ING’s forecast is straightforward: both headline and core CPI could rise 0.3% month over month—enough to make a December hike the most likely outcome.
Unless October CPI comes in significantly below expectations, or the November jobs report on December 4 shows a marked slowdown, the market will likely have fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike by the time of next month’s policy meeting.
CPI doesn’t need to come in scorching hot. As long as monthly inflation holds at 0.3%, a December hike will be all but a sure thing.
We’ll know tomorrow night.
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
