SOL loses $90 and SMA200 — China crackdown + ETF outflows hit hard
$SOL is a dollar above its 30-day low after China confirmed a crackdown and US spot SOL ETFs kept bleeding.
Snapshot (11:46 PKT, 9 Nov): $85.89, down 3.5% in 24h, range $85.02–$90.01. Binance volume $163M, total $2.29B. Market cap $50.8B, rank 7. BTC $74,088, ETH $2,106. Fear and Greed 29 (Fear).
What happened:
- 8 Nov daily close $86.54 finished below the 200-day average $89.05 and below the $90.41 long-term trendline — a confirmed breakdown, not just a wick.
- 6 Nov: China's central bank (PBOC) confirmed it halted Solana Accelerate China 2026 in Shanghai and is investigating the organisers — promoting SOL counts as illegal financial activity under Feb 2026 rules (Cointelegraph, Financial News).
- US spot SOL ETFs: 5 straight weeks of outflows, about $150–170M; $24.2M out on 6 Nov alone (SoSoValue, Farside).
- Futures open interest fell to $5.10B, a two-month low, from $7.62B on 8 Oct (CoinGlass); liquidations $27.8M in 24h.
- RSI 23.6 — deeply oversold. 7 days down 8.5%, 30 days down 20.7%, year to date down 30.6%. ATH $293.31 is 70.5% away.
Expectations — base-rate study, not a guarantee:
SOL's own history, 1,000 daily candles: when it closed below its 200-day average with RSI under 35 and a 7-day fall of 3% or more, the next 8% move was DOWN first in 48% of cases (11 of 23), UP first in 35% (8 of 23), neither in 17%. But 65% ended higher after 7 days — dips often recover within a week. Cross-checks agree: the first move leans down, the week-long drift leans up. No Deribit SOL options exist, so this is history-based, not market-implied.
Plan:
- No chasing, no knife-catching.
- Bounce trade only on a daily close back above $89.05, safer above $90.41.
- Dip only if $85.02 holds and price closes back above $87.46 — tiny size.
- Invalidation: daily close below $85.02 opens $80, then $77.60.
- Targets on reclaim: $90.41, $96.23, $107.30.
- Spot only, half size max. Confidence: Low.
Next: token unlock about $34.5M on 11 Nov; Breakpoint London 15–17 Nov; US CPI 10 Nov.
#Solana #SOL #Crypto
$SOL is a dollar above its 30-day low after China confirmed a crackdown and US spot SOL ETFs kept bleeding.
Snapshot (11:46 PKT, 9 Nov): $85.89, down 3.5% in 24h, range $85.02–$90.01. Binance volume $163M, total $2.29B. Market cap $50.8B, rank 7. BTC $74,088, ETH $2,106. Fear and Greed 29 (Fear).
What happened:
- 8 Nov daily close $86.54 finished below the 200-day average $89.05 and below the $90.41 long-term trendline — a confirmed breakdown, not just a wick.
- 6 Nov: China's central bank (PBOC) confirmed it halted Solana Accelerate China 2026 in Shanghai and is investigating the organisers — promoting SOL counts as illegal financial activity under Feb 2026 rules (Cointelegraph, Financial News).
- US spot SOL ETFs: 5 straight weeks of outflows, about $150–170M; $24.2M out on 6 Nov alone (SoSoValue, Farside).
- Futures open interest fell to $5.10B, a two-month low, from $7.62B on 8 Oct (CoinGlass); liquidations $27.8M in 24h.
- RSI 23.6 — deeply oversold. 7 days down 8.5%, 30 days down 20.7%, year to date down 30.6%. ATH $293.31 is 70.5% away.
Expectations — base-rate study, not a guarantee:
SOL's own history, 1,000 daily candles: when it closed below its 200-day average with RSI under 35 and a 7-day fall of 3% or more, the next 8% move was DOWN first in 48% of cases (11 of 23), UP first in 35% (8 of 23), neither in 17%. But 65% ended higher after 7 days — dips often recover within a week. Cross-checks agree: the first move leans down, the week-long drift leans up. No Deribit SOL options exist, so this is history-based, not market-implied.
Plan:
- No chasing, no knife-catching.
- Bounce trade only on a daily close back above $89.05, safer above $90.41.
- Dip only if $85.02 holds and price closes back above $87.46 — tiny size.
- Invalidation: daily close below $85.02 opens $80, then $77.60.
- Targets on reclaim: $90.41, $96.23, $107.30.
- Spot only, half size max. Confidence: Low.
Next: token unlock about $34.5M on 11 Nov; Breakpoint London 15–17 Nov; US CPI 10 Nov.
#Solana #SOL #Crypto