Week of November 9–13: October CPI is the key event
Bitcoin closed Friday at $76,038, down 1.6% for the week, after testing $75,000 $ during the tech stock sell-off and a stronger-than-expected jobs report (NordFX).
The calendar
→ Tuesday, November 10, 2:30 p.m. (Paris): U.S. October CPI. Consensus: +0.3% month over month (+0.6% the previous month) and +0.2% excluding food and energy. Barclays forecasts +0.24% and +0.22%.
→ Wednesday, November 11: U.S. bond markets are closed (Veterans Day).
→ Friday, November 13: producer price index (PPI).
One detail to know: the BLS will not publish annual CPI, because October 2025 data was never collected due to the government shutdown. Only monthly figures will be available (Newsquawk).
Why it matters: this is the last CPI release before the Fed meeting on December 8 and 9. The probability of a rate hike in December is estimated at between 65% and 79%, depending on the source, leaving little room for a hotter-than-expected reading.
The levels cited: as long as Bitcoin remains below $76,800–$77,200, the trend remains bearish, according to mql5. NordFX sees a $72,000–$80,000 $ range as the base-case scenario.
My analysis: a softer CPI would ease rate hike expectations, while a hotter reading would strengthen them. These are analysts’ levels, not forecasts.
This is not investment advice.
Which figure will matter more this week: Tuesday’s CPI or Friday’s PPI?
Bitcoin closed Friday at $76,038, down 1.6% for the week, after testing $75,000 $ during the tech stock sell-off and a stronger-than-expected jobs report (NordFX).
The calendar
→ Tuesday, November 10, 2:30 p.m. (Paris): U.S. October CPI. Consensus: +0.3% month over month (+0.6% the previous month) and +0.2% excluding food and energy. Barclays forecasts +0.24% and +0.22%.
→ Wednesday, November 11: U.S. bond markets are closed (Veterans Day).
→ Friday, November 13: producer price index (PPI).
One detail to know: the BLS will not publish annual CPI, because October 2025 data was never collected due to the government shutdown. Only monthly figures will be available (Newsquawk).
Why it matters: this is the last CPI release before the Fed meeting on December 8 and 9. The probability of a rate hike in December is estimated at between 65% and 79%, depending on the source, leaving little room for a hotter-than-expected reading.
The levels cited: as long as Bitcoin remains below $76,800–$77,200, the trend remains bearish, according to mql5. NordFX sees a $72,000–$80,000 $ range as the base-case scenario.
My analysis: a softer CPI would ease rate hike expectations, while a hotter reading would strengthen them. These are analysts’ levels, not forecasts.
This is not investment advice.
Which figure will matter more this week: Tuesday’s CPI or Friday’s PPI?
