Tomorrow’s CPI: the number you should be watching most is one the government won’t provide this time.
The U.S. October CPI will be released Tuesday at 21:30. Because the government shutdown last October meant the BLS didn’t collect price data, there won’t be an official year-over-year rate this time—only the month-over-month change from September to October. In other words, on Tuesday you’ll see a lot of people cite a “3.x% year-over-year” figure. They calculated it themselves; it’s not an official number.
The market consensus is a 0.24% to 0.3% increase in headline CPI and 0.2% in core CPI, cooling from September’s 0.3%. The Cleveland Fed’s latest nowcast is 0.24% and 0.21%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Fed is currently stuck at 3.75% to 4.00%. It held rates steady on October 28, with two committee members voting for a hike. Futures and prediction markets both put the odds of a quarter-point hike on December 9 at around 76%.
So I think the point of this CPI report isn’t whether there’ll be a December hike—that’s already almost fully priced in. It’s the path beyond that, in 2027. A 0.2% monthly increase in core CPI changes nothing; a jump to above 0.3% would kill the “inflation is cooling” story and push the 2027 rate-hike path higher. Only a drop to 0.1% would have a chance of bringing the market-implied odds of a December hike below 60%—that’s the only genuinely positive surprise this time.
Over in crypto, leverage hasn’t been flushed out beforehand. BTC is now at 74,375, down 1.85% over 24 hours; ETH is at 2,129, down 4.67%. Funding rates are near zero: BTC +0.01%, ETH -0.0042%. BTC open interest has returned to 96.7k from 99.0k on November 3, while ETH open interest has fallen 4.4% in two days. This doesn’t look like a liquidation-driven market: funding costs aren’t skewed to either side, and OI isn’t expanding. There’s no sign of crowded leveraged positions. Whatever direction the data points, positioning won’t amplify it for you—or offset it.
If core CPI rises by less than 0.1% month over month and the odds of a December hike fall back below 60%, then my “hawkish asymmetry” thesis above is wrong, and I’ll change my view.
On the night when there’s no official year-over-year rate, will you watch the monthly change—or the year-over-year figure someone else calculates?
$BTC $ETH #MarketHotTopic
The U.S. October CPI will be released Tuesday at 21:30. Because the government shutdown last October meant the BLS didn’t collect price data, there won’t be an official year-over-year rate this time—only the month-over-month change from September to October. In other words, on Tuesday you’ll see a lot of people cite a “3.x% year-over-year” figure. They calculated it themselves; it’s not an official number.
The market consensus is a 0.24% to 0.3% increase in headline CPI and 0.2% in core CPI, cooling from September’s 0.3%. The Cleveland Fed’s latest nowcast is 0.24% and 0.21%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Fed is currently stuck at 3.75% to 4.00%. It held rates steady on October 28, with two committee members voting for a hike. Futures and prediction markets both put the odds of a quarter-point hike on December 9 at around 76%.
So I think the point of this CPI report isn’t whether there’ll be a December hike—that’s already almost fully priced in. It’s the path beyond that, in 2027. A 0.2% monthly increase in core CPI changes nothing; a jump to above 0.3% would kill the “inflation is cooling” story and push the 2027 rate-hike path higher. Only a drop to 0.1% would have a chance of bringing the market-implied odds of a December hike below 60%—that’s the only genuinely positive surprise this time.
Over in crypto, leverage hasn’t been flushed out beforehand. BTC is now at 74,375, down 1.85% over 24 hours; ETH is at 2,129, down 4.67%. Funding rates are near zero: BTC +0.01%, ETH -0.0042%. BTC open interest has returned to 96.7k from 99.0k on November 3, while ETH open interest has fallen 4.4% in two days. This doesn’t look like a liquidation-driven market: funding costs aren’t skewed to either side, and OI isn’t expanding. There’s no sign of crowded leveraged positions. Whatever direction the data points, positioning won’t amplify it for you—or offset it.
If core CPI rises by less than 0.1% month over month and the odds of a December hike fall back below 60%, then my “hawkish asymmetry” thesis above is wrong, and I’ll change my view.
On the night when there’s no official year-over-year rate, will you watch the monthly change—or the year-over-year figure someone else calculates?
$BTC $ETH #MarketHotTopic
