$75,000 was lost twice. This time, I didn’t just watch—I added to my short.
13:00: $BTC at approximately $74,727, down 1.37% over 24 hours; $ETH at approximately $2,134, down 4.39% over 24 hours (live data from CoinGecko). This morning, the price briefly dipped to $73,510, a three-month low (Finnhub data).
The $75,000 level was breached twice today: the 4-hour candle closing at 08:00 finished at around $74,740, and the one closing at 12:00 finished at around $74,781. Both 4-hour candles closed below $75,000, and the price is still below that level—it hasn’t reclaimed it. It was right not to chase the short during this morning’s V-shaped rebound from $73,510 to $75,190; but two confirmed candle closes are not the same as a single wick.
ETH has already fallen below $2,200. As I said before, bearish momentum is accelerating. XRP is around $1.11 (-4.6%) and SOL around $85.7 (-3.9%); major coins are all moving lower (TradingView).
Short trade update #14: Opened the short on November 7 at 13:00 in the $75,800–$76,100 range, with a midpoint entry of $75,950. Current price: $74,727, down 1.61% from entry. At 100x leverage, the unrealized profit is approximately +161%—up from +97% at 11:02. This trade is in profit now, to be frank. The stop-loss at $77,500 and targets at $73,200 (take half off at this level) / $68,000 remain unchanged.
Decision to add to the short (following the trigger level I previously made public): The 12:00 4-hour candle closed below $75,000, triggering the add-to-short level. I’m adding a small short position around $74,700–$75,000, with the same stop as the original trade, above $77,500, and a target of $73,200. As with the original position, I’ll use only a very small portion of total capital as margin; at 100x, I won’t hold through a one-way move.
But there are two variables to flag first: 7,932 BTC options expire today at 16:00, with max pain at $76,000 overhead (Coinlab data). Prices may be pulled toward $76,000 before expiry, so a short-term bounce wouldn’t be surprising. Tomorrow at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. October CPI will be released. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is 76%–80%. I won’t trade during the hour before or after the CPI release.
The conditions for a reversal are unchanged: I’ll admit I’m wrong and exit if a 4-hour candle closes back above $76,250. I’ll only consider going long if the price reclaims $78,000 and holds above it.
After losing $75,000 twice, do you think we’ll reclaim it tonight? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 13:00 Beijing time on November 9; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
13:00: $BTC at approximately $74,727, down 1.37% over 24 hours; $ETH at approximately $2,134, down 4.39% over 24 hours (live data from CoinGecko). This morning, the price briefly dipped to $73,510, a three-month low (Finnhub data).
The $75,000 level was breached twice today: the 4-hour candle closing at 08:00 finished at around $74,740, and the one closing at 12:00 finished at around $74,781. Both 4-hour candles closed below $75,000, and the price is still below that level—it hasn’t reclaimed it. It was right not to chase the short during this morning’s V-shaped rebound from $73,510 to $75,190; but two confirmed candle closes are not the same as a single wick.
ETH has already fallen below $2,200. As I said before, bearish momentum is accelerating. XRP is around $1.11 (-4.6%) and SOL around $85.7 (-3.9%); major coins are all moving lower (TradingView).
Short trade update #14: Opened the short on November 7 at 13:00 in the $75,800–$76,100 range, with a midpoint entry of $75,950. Current price: $74,727, down 1.61% from entry. At 100x leverage, the unrealized profit is approximately +161%—up from +97% at 11:02. This trade is in profit now, to be frank. The stop-loss at $77,500 and targets at $73,200 (take half off at this level) / $68,000 remain unchanged.
Decision to add to the short (following the trigger level I previously made public): The 12:00 4-hour candle closed below $75,000, triggering the add-to-short level. I’m adding a small short position around $74,700–$75,000, with the same stop as the original trade, above $77,500, and a target of $73,200. As with the original position, I’ll use only a very small portion of total capital as margin; at 100x, I won’t hold through a one-way move.
But there are two variables to flag first: 7,932 BTC options expire today at 16:00, with max pain at $76,000 overhead (Coinlab data). Prices may be pulled toward $76,000 before expiry, so a short-term bounce wouldn’t be surprising. Tomorrow at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. October CPI will be released. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is 76%–80%. I won’t trade during the hour before or after the CPI release.
The conditions for a reversal are unchanged: I’ll admit I’m wrong and exit if a 4-hour candle closes back above $76,250. I’ll only consider going long if the price reclaims $78,000 and holds above it.
After losing $75,000 twice, do you think we’ll reclaim it tonight? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 13:00 Beijing time on November 9; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
