HYPE Technical Analysis: 4-hour chart hugging the range floor, daily at -0%; 76.35 at the range floor is today's line
$HYPE is at 74.54 today, hugging the 4-hour range floor — the daily range is at -0%, and the daily chart is also at the lower end.
▬ Range on two timeframes
4-hour: 76.35 ~ 80.23, width 3.88 (2.5 ATR, 5.20% of price), currently at -47%
Thickest volume zones: 77.99~80.23 (73 touches); 76.35~77.99 (57 touches)
Daily: 74.56 ~ 89.92, width 15.36 (3.1 ATR, 20.61% of price), currently at -0%
▬ Technicals
ATR: 4-hour 1.48 (1.98%), 1-hour 0.7381 (0.99%), daily 4.69 (6.30%)
4-hour EMAs 10/20/50 = 76.25/77.61/80.22 (bearish alignment, with all 3 above price); daily EMA20 < EMA50 (bearish alignment)
Volume: average trading volume over the past 6 hours is 0.6x the average for the previous 24 hours — volume is declining
▬ Contract structure (Binance perpetuals)
Funding rate +0.0039% (longs pay) Open interest 5.19 million tokens Retail long/short ratio 1.87 Top-trader long/short ratio 2.46
▬ Whale reference (Hyperliquid)
The 7 addresses I track have a combined net short position of 37.51 million U in HYPE (calculated at the current price of 74.54; verify for yourself)
· BobbyBigSize Short 413,693 tokens, entry 85.31, current value 30.84 million U, liquidation 143.21
· NMTD -Thank yo Long 204,493 tokens, entry 63.19, current value 15.24 million U, liquidation 40.40
· ETH's top shorter Short 102,189 tokens, entry 81.95, current value 7.62 million U
These addresses' liquidation prices range from 40.40 ~ 143.21
▬ Related news
· [Decrypt] Why a Hyperliquid Treasury Firm Wants to Become a US…
▬ My view: Bearish
Bullish case: price has returned to the lower edge of the 4-hour range (-47%). Bearish case: the daily chart is in bearish alignment; all three 4-hour moving averages are overhead.
▬ The current setup
Price is at -47% of the 4-hour range: there is 7.6% (3.9 ATR) to the upside before 80.23, and -2.4% (-1.2 ATR) to the downside before 76.35.
The range is 2.6 ATR wide, a medium-width consolidation range, with volume declining to 0.6x.
Price has already reached the lower edge of the range; another -2.4% down is the bottom of the high-volume zone — this is a place to go long. A break below it means the structure has deteriorated, not that “it has fallen enough to bounce.”
▬ Specific trade plans (entries, exits, and risk included)
Long
Entry 76.35 ~ 76.72 (current price is 2.9% above the zone; wait for a dip, don't chase)
Trigger: only counts if a 4-hour candle closes above 76.72; a brief move above doesn't count
Stop loss 75.76 (risk 0.78 = 1.01%) — 0.4 ATR beyond the lower edge of the high-volume zone
T1 77.99 (RR 1:1.9) → T2 80.23 (RR 1:4.8)
Take-profit plan: close the entire position at T1. Reason: both the 4-hour and daily charts are falling, so this trade goes against the trend; it's only a bounce/pullback within the range, so take profit at T1.
Breakeven win rate: 35% to reach T1
Risk per trade 1% → notional position size ≤ 1.0x capital
Short ← aligns with my bias
Rationale: all three 4-hour moving averages are above price, creating medium-term resistance; the daily chart is in bearish alignment; 80.23 above is the upper edge of the high-volume zone, a resistance level rather than a target; retail long/short ratio is 1.87, and crowded longs are vulnerable to a reversal and liquidation.
Entry 79.86 ~ 80.23 (current price is 7.1% below the zone; wait for a rally, don't chase)
Trigger: only counts if a 4-hour candle closes below 79.86; a brief move below doesn't count
Stop loss 80.82 (risk 0.78 = 0.97%) — 0.4 ATR beyond the upper edge of the high-volume zone
T1 77.99 (RR 1:2.6) → T2 76.35 (RR 1:4.8)
Take-profit plan: close the entire position at T1. Reason: the direction is right (both the 4-hour and daily charts are falling), but volume is only 0.6x, so it's not worth taking the risk of giving back profits for T2.
Breakeven win rate: 27% to reach T1
Risk per trade 1% → notional position size ≤ 1.0x capital
What price would you wait for before making a move?
The above is based on public data and my own calculations; it does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own judgment and take responsibility for your decisions. Not investment advice.
$HYPE
$HYPE is at 74.54 today, hugging the 4-hour range floor — the daily range is at -0%, and the daily chart is also at the lower end.
▬ Range on two timeframes
4-hour: 76.35 ~ 80.23, width 3.88 (2.5 ATR, 5.20% of price), currently at -47%
Thickest volume zones: 77.99~80.23 (73 touches); 76.35~77.99 (57 touches)
Daily: 74.56 ~ 89.92, width 15.36 (3.1 ATR, 20.61% of price), currently at -0%
▬ Technicals
ATR: 4-hour 1.48 (1.98%), 1-hour 0.7381 (0.99%), daily 4.69 (6.30%)
4-hour EMAs 10/20/50 = 76.25/77.61/80.22 (bearish alignment, with all 3 above price); daily EMA20 < EMA50 (bearish alignment)
Volume: average trading volume over the past 6 hours is 0.6x the average for the previous 24 hours — volume is declining
▬ Contract structure (Binance perpetuals)
Funding rate +0.0039% (longs pay) Open interest 5.19 million tokens Retail long/short ratio 1.87 Top-trader long/short ratio 2.46
▬ Whale reference (Hyperliquid)
The 7 addresses I track have a combined net short position of 37.51 million U in HYPE (calculated at the current price of 74.54; verify for yourself)
· BobbyBigSize Short 413,693 tokens, entry 85.31, current value 30.84 million U, liquidation 143.21
· NMTD -Thank yo Long 204,493 tokens, entry 63.19, current value 15.24 million U, liquidation 40.40
· ETH's top shorter Short 102,189 tokens, entry 81.95, current value 7.62 million U
These addresses' liquidation prices range from 40.40 ~ 143.21
▬ Related news
· [Decrypt] Why a Hyperliquid Treasury Firm Wants to Become a US…
▬ My view: Bearish
Bullish case: price has returned to the lower edge of the 4-hour range (-47%). Bearish case: the daily chart is in bearish alignment; all three 4-hour moving averages are overhead.
▬ The current setup
Price is at -47% of the 4-hour range: there is 7.6% (3.9 ATR) to the upside before 80.23, and -2.4% (-1.2 ATR) to the downside before 76.35.
The range is 2.6 ATR wide, a medium-width consolidation range, with volume declining to 0.6x.
Price has already reached the lower edge of the range; another -2.4% down is the bottom of the high-volume zone — this is a place to go long. A break below it means the structure has deteriorated, not that “it has fallen enough to bounce.”
▬ Specific trade plans (entries, exits, and risk included)
Long
Entry 76.35 ~ 76.72 (current price is 2.9% above the zone; wait for a dip, don't chase)
Trigger: only counts if a 4-hour candle closes above 76.72; a brief move above doesn't count
Stop loss 75.76 (risk 0.78 = 1.01%) — 0.4 ATR beyond the lower edge of the high-volume zone
T1 77.99 (RR 1:1.9) → T2 80.23 (RR 1:4.8)
Take-profit plan: close the entire position at T1. Reason: both the 4-hour and daily charts are falling, so this trade goes against the trend; it's only a bounce/pullback within the range, so take profit at T1.
Breakeven win rate: 35% to reach T1
Risk per trade 1% → notional position size ≤ 1.0x capital
Short ← aligns with my bias
Rationale: all three 4-hour moving averages are above price, creating medium-term resistance; the daily chart is in bearish alignment; 80.23 above is the upper edge of the high-volume zone, a resistance level rather than a target; retail long/short ratio is 1.87, and crowded longs are vulnerable to a reversal and liquidation.
Entry 79.86 ~ 80.23 (current price is 7.1% below the zone; wait for a rally, don't chase)
Trigger: only counts if a 4-hour candle closes below 79.86; a brief move below doesn't count
Stop loss 80.82 (risk 0.78 = 0.97%) — 0.4 ATR beyond the upper edge of the high-volume zone
T1 77.99 (RR 1:2.6) → T2 76.35 (RR 1:4.8)
Take-profit plan: close the entire position at T1. Reason: the direction is right (both the 4-hour and daily charts are falling), but volume is only 0.6x, so it's not worth taking the risk of giving back profits for T2.
Breakeven win rate: 27% to reach T1
Risk per trade 1% → notional position size ≤ 1.0x capital
What price would you wait for before making a move?
The above is based on public data and my own calculations; it does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own judgment and take responsibility for your decisions. Not investment advice.
$HYPE