Market-maker perspective: $BTC midday: Three tests of 75,600 all failed to hold at the close; this afternoon, only the closing price counts
📊 12:37 snapshot: Current price 75,088.4, 24h high 76,200 / low 73,500, 24h change about -1.10%.
Open interest: 34,182.6 coins, worth about $2.567 billion, up approximately 331.3 coins since the review; funding rate 0.0050%/8h, slightly higher, next settlement at 16:00.
Morning review: I said earlier that “if the 08:00 close gets back above 75,600, the false breakdown is confirmed.” The 08:00 close was 75,228.2—it didn’t get back above. I also said “if the 10:00 close gets back above 75,600, the recovery is confirmed.” The 10:00 close was 75,272—it didn’t get back above either. Three morning wicks reached toward 75,600, and all three closed back below: at 07:00, the wick surged to 75,738.2, above 75,600, but closed at 74,846.4; at 09:00, the wick only reached 75,500; at 10:00, it reached 75,598, just $2 short of 75,600, and closed at 75,272. The downside held too: the three closes from 09:00 onward were 75,166.2, 75,272, and 74,856.9, all above the 74,433.4 level from the review. The 11:00 close was 74,856.9, the lowest close since 08:00. In short, this morning: price couldn’t get above 75,600 or break below 74,433.4, and drifted lower between the two.
If I were the market maker: three wick tests of 75,600, and all three pulled back by the close—the selling pressure overhead is real, but nobody below is rushing to dump either. Open interest still rose by 331 coins, while the funding rate only recovered to 0.0050%; neither side is adding to its position. A sample of 100 trades—57 buys and 43 sells—doesn’t show which side is trying to get ahead of the move. This afternoon, don’t chase the 12:00 in-progress wick; wait for the close.
In a nutshell: No direction emerged this morning. This afternoon, only the close counts; 75,600 is still the hurdle.
Today’s focus: First, see whether the 13:00 close can get back above 75,600; then see whether the 14:00 and 15:00 closes can stay above it in succession.
Invalidation levels: If the 1H close gets back above 75,600, the recovery is confirmed; then watch 76,000 / 76,200. If the 1H close falls below 74,433.4, more than half the move has been given back; then watch 74,146.3 / 73,500. The in-progress 12:00 price action doesn’t count as a trigger—only the close does.
For discussion purposes only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
📊 12:37 snapshot: Current price 75,088.4, 24h high 76,200 / low 73,500, 24h change about -1.10%.
Open interest: 34,182.6 coins, worth about $2.567 billion, up approximately 331.3 coins since the review; funding rate 0.0050%/8h, slightly higher, next settlement at 16:00.
Morning review: I said earlier that “if the 08:00 close gets back above 75,600, the false breakdown is confirmed.” The 08:00 close was 75,228.2—it didn’t get back above. I also said “if the 10:00 close gets back above 75,600, the recovery is confirmed.” The 10:00 close was 75,272—it didn’t get back above either. Three morning wicks reached toward 75,600, and all three closed back below: at 07:00, the wick surged to 75,738.2, above 75,600, but closed at 74,846.4; at 09:00, the wick only reached 75,500; at 10:00, it reached 75,598, just $2 short of 75,600, and closed at 75,272. The downside held too: the three closes from 09:00 onward were 75,166.2, 75,272, and 74,856.9, all above the 74,433.4 level from the review. The 11:00 close was 74,856.9, the lowest close since 08:00. In short, this morning: price couldn’t get above 75,600 or break below 74,433.4, and drifted lower between the two.
If I were the market maker: three wick tests of 75,600, and all three pulled back by the close—the selling pressure overhead is real, but nobody below is rushing to dump either. Open interest still rose by 331 coins, while the funding rate only recovered to 0.0050%; neither side is adding to its position. A sample of 100 trades—57 buys and 43 sells—doesn’t show which side is trying to get ahead of the move. This afternoon, don’t chase the 12:00 in-progress wick; wait for the close.
In a nutshell: No direction emerged this morning. This afternoon, only the close counts; 75,600 is still the hurdle.
Today’s focus: First, see whether the 13:00 close can get back above 75,600; then see whether the 14:00 and 15:00 closes can stay above it in succession.
Invalidation levels: If the 1H close gets back above 75,600, the recovery is confirmed; then watch 76,000 / 76,200. If the 1H close falls below 74,433.4, more than half the move has been given back; then watch 74,146.3 / 73,500. The in-progress 12:00 price action doesn’t count as a trigger—only the close does.
For discussion purposes only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
