Why “fixed cycles” are a thinking trap in every market:
Bitcoin halving: just 4 samples over 18 years, not a law of physics.
The real driver of the 2020 surge wasn’t the “halving narrative”—it was the massive fiscal and monetary easing around the world after the pandemic, with trillions in liquidity pouring into risk assets;
And the 2022 plunge to $16,000 wasn’t because the cycle hadn’t arrived—it was because the Fed raised rates from 0 to 5%+, draining liquidity.
BTC’s market cap used to be in the tens of billions; now crypto is a macro asset class worth over $2 trillion. Pricing power lies with dollar liquidity, ETF flows, and risk appetite for the Nasdaq—not miner selling pressure.
Fed rate cuts: 2007 (subprime crisis), 2019 (repo freeze + trade war), 2024 (cooling inflation + slowing employment). The intervals between these three rounds of cuts ranged from 2.5 to 11 years. Rate cuts aren’t “candy every four years”; they’re emergency responses driven by events—the Fed cuts when a crisis hits, and holds firm when there isn’t one.
U.S. stock market calendar effects: the January effect, “Sell in May,” October crashes… Once quant funds and retail investors all trade these “patterns,” the alpha self-destructs. After May 2020, U.S. stocks rose 60% because liquidity matters a hundred times more than the season.
·Economic cycles are even less like clockwork:
Kitchin (inventory) cycle: roughly 40 months, but a four-trillion-dollar stimulus can forcibly interrupt inventory destocking;
Juglar (business investment) cycle: 9–10 years, extended to 12 years by the IT revolution, with AI computing power stretching the next round even further;
Kuznets (real estate) cycle: 15–25 years. Japan’s real estate market took over 30 years to go from 1991 to 2024;
Kondratiev (technology) cycle: 45–60 years. Without a technological revolution, the cycle keeps grinding along at the bottom.
Cycles have “historical averages,” but no “fixed alarm clock.”
An average is merely a statistical residue of past conditions. When conditions change (technological shocks, policy intervention, geopolitics, liquidity), the timeline stretches or contracts.
The market isn’t a clock; it’s the weather.
You can estimate the odds of a rainy season, but you can’t say, “It will definitely rain every year at 3 p.m. on June 15.”
Those who cling to fixed cycles like someone marking the boat after dropping a sword aren’t bad at understanding data—they’re just too lazy to watch the variables.
What truly determines prices is always: the direction of liquidity + supply-and-demand dynamics + investor preferences + external shocks, not “which year of the cycle” you’re in.
$BTC
#BTC☀
Bitcoin halving: just 4 samples over 18 years, not a law of physics.
The real driver of the 2020 surge wasn’t the “halving narrative”—it was the massive fiscal and monetary easing around the world after the pandemic, with trillions in liquidity pouring into risk assets;
And the 2022 plunge to $16,000 wasn’t because the cycle hadn’t arrived—it was because the Fed raised rates from 0 to 5%+, draining liquidity.
BTC’s market cap used to be in the tens of billions; now crypto is a macro asset class worth over $2 trillion. Pricing power lies with dollar liquidity, ETF flows, and risk appetite for the Nasdaq—not miner selling pressure.
Fed rate cuts: 2007 (subprime crisis), 2019 (repo freeze + trade war), 2024 (cooling inflation + slowing employment). The intervals between these three rounds of cuts ranged from 2.5 to 11 years. Rate cuts aren’t “candy every four years”; they’re emergency responses driven by events—the Fed cuts when a crisis hits, and holds firm when there isn’t one.
U.S. stock market calendar effects: the January effect, “Sell in May,” October crashes… Once quant funds and retail investors all trade these “patterns,” the alpha self-destructs. After May 2020, U.S. stocks rose 60% because liquidity matters a hundred times more than the season.
·Economic cycles are even less like clockwork:
Kitchin (inventory) cycle: roughly 40 months, but a four-trillion-dollar stimulus can forcibly interrupt inventory destocking;
Juglar (business investment) cycle: 9–10 years, extended to 12 years by the IT revolution, with AI computing power stretching the next round even further;
Kuznets (real estate) cycle: 15–25 years. Japan’s real estate market took over 30 years to go from 1991 to 2024;
Kondratiev (technology) cycle: 45–60 years. Without a technological revolution, the cycle keeps grinding along at the bottom.
Cycles have “historical averages,” but no “fixed alarm clock.”
An average is merely a statistical residue of past conditions. When conditions change (technological shocks, policy intervention, geopolitics, liquidity), the timeline stretches or contracts.
The market isn’t a clock; it’s the weather.
You can estimate the odds of a rainy season, but you can’t say, “It will definitely rain every year at 3 p.m. on June 15.”
Those who cling to fixed cycles like someone marking the boat after dropping a sword aren’t bad at understanding data—they’re just too lazy to watch the variables.
What truly determines prices is always: the direction of liquidity + supply-and-demand dynamics + investor preferences + external shocks, not “which year of the cycle” you’re in.
$BTC
#BTC☀