$BTC 11 Month 8 weekly close was $74,968, 0.7% below the 50-week moving average of $75,488 at the time, ending a record streak of 7 consecutive weeks above the average. Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn noted that in 2011–2012 and 2019–2020, the price also climbed back above the average after a bear-market low, then fell below it again. By weekly closing prices, neither instance went on to set a lower bear-market low.
But there have only been two such instances, and in both cases the break below the average came after the low was in. Thorn himself said that whether the 2026 low has formed can only be confirmed in hindsight. So a break below the average alone can’t tell you whether we’re halfway down or at the bottom.
Rather than treating it as a bottom signal, it’s better to view it as a sentiment indicator: can weekly closes get back above $75,488 in the coming weeks? If they can’t, that’s when this line turns from noise into a signal.
#比特币 #技术面 #50-week moving average
But there have only been two such instances, and in both cases the break below the average came after the low was in. Thorn himself said that whether the 2026 low has formed can only be confirmed in hindsight. So a break below the average alone can’t tell you whether we’re halfway down or at the bottom.
Rather than treating it as a bottom signal, it’s better to view it as a sentiment indicator: can weekly closes get back above $75,488 in the coming weeks? If they can’t, that’s when this line turns from noise into a signal.
#比特币 #技术面 #50-week moving average