Suppose there was a person named Xiao Ke, who worked the night shift at a courier branch in a county town. In the early morning, when the branch temporarily had no parcels, he would glance at the market.
On November 4, he was watching $FOGO . That day, it first hit a low of 0.00219, 6.81% lower than the opening price of 0.00235. Later it surged to a high of 0.00241, 2.55% higher than the opening price of 0.00235. It closed at 0.00237, 0.85% higher than the opening price of 0.00235. From the high of 0.00241 back to the close of 0.00237, it fell 1.66%. From the low of 0.00219 back to the close of 0.00237, it rebounded 8.22%. He didn’t buy, thinking he would wait until the next day’s open to act.
On November 5, the opening price was 0.00237, the same as the November 4 close. He bought a batch at that price, so his cost was 0.00237. That day it first climbed to a high of 0.00293, 23.63% higher than his cost of 0.00237. He didn’t sell, feeling it could still go higher. Later it dropped to a low of 0.00223, 5.91% lower than his cost of 0.00237. It closed at 0.00229, 3.38% lower than his cost of 0.00237. From the high of 0.00293 back to the close of 0.00229, it fell 21.84%. From the low of 0.00223 back to the close of 0.00229, it rebounded 2.69%. The high of 0.00293 was 31.39% higher than the low of 0.00223.
November 6 was Friday, and the opening price was 0.00229, the same as the November 5 close. That day’s low was also 0.00229, the same as the opening price, and it didn’t move lower. Later it surged to a high of 0.00246, 7.42% higher than the opening price of 0.00229, 3.80% higher than his cost of 0.00237, but still 16.04% lower than the November 5 high of 0.00293. It closed at 0.00234, 2.18% higher than the opening price of 0.00229, and 1.27% lower than his cost of 0.00237. From the high of 0.00246 back to the close of 0.00234, it fell 4.88%. The November 6 high of 0.00246 was only 3.80% above his cost, far below the November 5 high of 0.00293.
November 7 was Saturday, and the opening price was 0.00234, the same as the November 6 close. That day it first reached a high of 0.00237, 1.28% higher than the opening price of 0.00234, just touching his cost of 0.00237. He still didn’t leave. Later it dropped to a low of 0.00209, 10.68% lower than the opening price of 0.00234, and 11.81% lower than his cost of 0.00237. It closed at 0.00214, 8.55% lower than the opening price of 0.00234, and 9.70% lower than his cost of 0.00237. From the high of 0.00237 back to the close of 0.00214, it fell 9.70%. From the low of 0.00209 back to the close of 0.00214, it rebounded 2.39%.
November 8 was Sunday, and the opening price was 0.00214, the same as the November 7 close. The high only reached 0.00215, 0.47% higher than the opening price of 0.00214, 9.28% lower than his cost of 0.00237, and it barely moved up at all. Later it fell to a low of 0.00178, 16.82% lower than the opening price of 0.00214, and 24.89% lower than his cost of 0.00237. It closed at 0.00197, 7.94% lower than the opening price of 0.00214, and 16.88% lower than his cost of 0.00237. From the high of 0.00215 back to the close of 0.00197, it fell 8.37%. From the low of 0.00178 back to the close of 0.00197, it rebounded 10.67%. The Sunday close of 0.00197 was 15.81% lower than the Friday close of 0.00234.
Xiao Ke later told a coworker who was unloading cargo: The November 4 close of 0.00237 was 0.85% higher than the open, and I bought at the next day’s open of 0.00237. On November 5, the price first reached 0.00293, 23.63% above my cost, and I didn’t sell; later it dropped to a close of 0.00229, 3.38% below my cost, and fell 21.84% from the high. November 6 was Friday, and the high reached 0.00246, 3.80% above my cost, but still 16.04% below the November 5 high of 0.00293; it closed at 0.00234, 1.27% below my cost. November 7 was Saturday, and the high just touched my cost of 0.00237, but I still didn’t leave; later it fell to 0.00209 and closed at 0.00214, 9.70% below my cost. November 8 was Sunday, the high was only 0.47% above the open, and the close was 0.00197, 16.88% below my cost.
If you had bought in at the open too, and at one point intraday it was 23.63% above your cost but you didn’t sell, then by the close it became 3.38% below your cost; later on Friday the high only reached 0.00246, on Saturday the high just touched your cost of 0.00237 and you still didn’t leave, and on Sunday the high only reached 0.00215 while the close was still 16.88% below your cost, would you still think that waiting a little longer during that spike would have let you hold on?
On November 4, he was watching $FOGO . That day, it first hit a low of 0.00219, 6.81% lower than the opening price of 0.00235. Later it surged to a high of 0.00241, 2.55% higher than the opening price of 0.00235. It closed at 0.00237, 0.85% higher than the opening price of 0.00235. From the high of 0.00241 back to the close of 0.00237, it fell 1.66%. From the low of 0.00219 back to the close of 0.00237, it rebounded 8.22%. He didn’t buy, thinking he would wait until the next day’s open to act.
On November 5, the opening price was 0.00237, the same as the November 4 close. He bought a batch at that price, so his cost was 0.00237. That day it first climbed to a high of 0.00293, 23.63% higher than his cost of 0.00237. He didn’t sell, feeling it could still go higher. Later it dropped to a low of 0.00223, 5.91% lower than his cost of 0.00237. It closed at 0.00229, 3.38% lower than his cost of 0.00237. From the high of 0.00293 back to the close of 0.00229, it fell 21.84%. From the low of 0.00223 back to the close of 0.00229, it rebounded 2.69%. The high of 0.00293 was 31.39% higher than the low of 0.00223.
November 6 was Friday, and the opening price was 0.00229, the same as the November 5 close. That day’s low was also 0.00229, the same as the opening price, and it didn’t move lower. Later it surged to a high of 0.00246, 7.42% higher than the opening price of 0.00229, 3.80% higher than his cost of 0.00237, but still 16.04% lower than the November 5 high of 0.00293. It closed at 0.00234, 2.18% higher than the opening price of 0.00229, and 1.27% lower than his cost of 0.00237. From the high of 0.00246 back to the close of 0.00234, it fell 4.88%. The November 6 high of 0.00246 was only 3.80% above his cost, far below the November 5 high of 0.00293.
November 7 was Saturday, and the opening price was 0.00234, the same as the November 6 close. That day it first reached a high of 0.00237, 1.28% higher than the opening price of 0.00234, just touching his cost of 0.00237. He still didn’t leave. Later it dropped to a low of 0.00209, 10.68% lower than the opening price of 0.00234, and 11.81% lower than his cost of 0.00237. It closed at 0.00214, 8.55% lower than the opening price of 0.00234, and 9.70% lower than his cost of 0.00237. From the high of 0.00237 back to the close of 0.00214, it fell 9.70%. From the low of 0.00209 back to the close of 0.00214, it rebounded 2.39%.
November 8 was Sunday, and the opening price was 0.00214, the same as the November 7 close. The high only reached 0.00215, 0.47% higher than the opening price of 0.00214, 9.28% lower than his cost of 0.00237, and it barely moved up at all. Later it fell to a low of 0.00178, 16.82% lower than the opening price of 0.00214, and 24.89% lower than his cost of 0.00237. It closed at 0.00197, 7.94% lower than the opening price of 0.00214, and 16.88% lower than his cost of 0.00237. From the high of 0.00215 back to the close of 0.00197, it fell 8.37%. From the low of 0.00178 back to the close of 0.00197, it rebounded 10.67%. The Sunday close of 0.00197 was 15.81% lower than the Friday close of 0.00234.
Xiao Ke later told a coworker who was unloading cargo: The November 4 close of 0.00237 was 0.85% higher than the open, and I bought at the next day’s open of 0.00237. On November 5, the price first reached 0.00293, 23.63% above my cost, and I didn’t sell; later it dropped to a close of 0.00229, 3.38% below my cost, and fell 21.84% from the high. November 6 was Friday, and the high reached 0.00246, 3.80% above my cost, but still 16.04% below the November 5 high of 0.00293; it closed at 0.00234, 1.27% below my cost. November 7 was Saturday, and the high just touched my cost of 0.00237, but I still didn’t leave; later it fell to 0.00209 and closed at 0.00214, 9.70% below my cost. November 8 was Sunday, the high was only 0.47% above the open, and the close was 0.00197, 16.88% below my cost.
If you had bought in at the open too, and at one point intraday it was 23.63% above your cost but you didn’t sell, then by the close it became 3.38% below your cost; later on Friday the high only reached 0.00246, on Saturday the high just touched your cost of 0.00237 and you still didn’t leave, and on Sunday the high only reached 0.00215 while the close was still 16.88% below your cost, would you still think that waiting a little longer during that spike would have let you hold on?