Still no bottom in sight? | Weekly Review 2026-11-09
1. This decline is an extension of the move triggered by the bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart on October 5. Even yesterday, when BTC pulled back to 73K—the 200-day moving average—and ETH fell below the 200-day moving average to 2000U, we still saw no sign of a bottom.
2. Over the next few weeks, we need to watch whether a bullish engulfing pattern can form on the weekly chart, similar to the one on June 29, or the one for ETH on June 23, 2025. For specific price levels, refer to the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. For BTC, that’s 69K–73K; for ETH, 2000–2200—more or less where we are now.
3. However, I don’t think it’s likely that the market will break below the previous low. The bullish engulfing pattern on the quarterly chart is confirmed; it’s just that the medium- and long-term cycles are diverging right now, with no combined momentum. So, going forward, the market will likely remain characterized by choppy, back-and-forth action.
The biggest impact is that trend traders will find this quite painful, and will still need to wait patiently.
1. This decline is an extension of the move triggered by the bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart on October 5. Even yesterday, when BTC pulled back to 73K—the 200-day moving average—and ETH fell below the 200-day moving average to 2000U, we still saw no sign of a bottom.
2. Over the next few weeks, we need to watch whether a bullish engulfing pattern can form on the weekly chart, similar to the one on June 29, or the one for ETH on June 23, 2025. For specific price levels, refer to the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. For BTC, that’s 69K–73K; for ETH, 2000–2200—more or less where we are now.
3. However, I don’t think it’s likely that the market will break below the previous low. The bullish engulfing pattern on the quarterly chart is confirmed; it’s just that the medium- and long-term cycles are diverging right now, with no combined momentum. So, going forward, the market will likely remain characterized by choppy, back-and-forth action.
The biggest impact is that trend traders will find this quite painful, and will still need to wait patiently.
