U.S. stocks finally rebounded on Friday, with the Nasdaq up 1.09% and the S&P 500 up 0.31%. Nvidia rose about 2.8%, while AMD surged 11%. But don’t rush to assume the risks are behind us: the Nasdaq fell 3.4% over the week, and the S&P 500 was down 2.7%. Tech stocks are merely recovering from their sharp losses; concerns about AI valuations and U.S. interest rates have not gone away.
① Outflows from BTC ETFs are more concerning than the pullback in U.S. stocks. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of about $1.282 billion last week, including $412 million on Friday alone. BlackRock’s IBIT saw outflows of about $403 million. Spot ETH ETFs also recorded outflows of about $365 million last week. Note that ETF redemptions don’t mean the entire crypto market is selling, but persistent outflows show that institutional demand to absorb this supply remains weak.
② Strong U.S. employment has instead weighed on rate-cut expectations. Friday’s October jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The economy is not close to an easy downturn, which should be good news for risk assets. But if the Fed believes employment remains strong and inflationary pressures have yet to ease, markets will have to reassess how long interest rates will stay high. If the dollar and Treasury yields continue to strengthen, BTC and ETH could come under pressure; if investors focus more on economic resilience, the market could move differently.
③ Tomorrow evening’s CPI report is the first major test of the week. At 21:30 Beijing time on November 10, the U.S. will release its October Consumer Price Index. Inflation higher than expected could push Treasury yields up and further dampen risk appetite; a clear cooling in inflation could ease concerns about tight monetary policy. However, low inflation alone does not guarantee a BTC rally—ETF flows and leveraged positions matter too.
It’s Monday, and U.S. stocks will open as usual at 22:30 tonight. U.S. spot ETFs will also resume trading. With no U.S. spot-market trading over the weekend to use as a reference, tonight will be the first chance to gauge how traditional finance investors are really reacting.
Keep an eye on three things today: whether the Nasdaq can extend its rebound after U.S. markets open tonight; whether flows into BTC and ETH spot ETFs stop declining; and tomorrow evening’s CPI report at 21:30, along with any moves in the dollar and Treasury yields afterward.
A one-day rebound in U.S. stocks isn’t hard. The hard part is getting investors willing to take on risk again.
What do you think BTC needs more right now: a mild CPI reading, or a genuine return of institutional money to ETFs?