Bitcoin outlook for this week: 73,000 is not the bottom; I’m leaning toward another test of 71,000–71,400.
In my October 17 Jiazi post, I projected a 10% drop from 81,490, putting the price at 73,000. This morning, spot hit a low of 73,510, already close to that level. But my view isn’t “the target is almost here, so the decline is over.” Last week closed near 74,851, and 77,500 has been decisively lost. The bears haven’t given up control yet.
At the Start of Winter, the month shifts to Ji Hai, when Hai water is in season. The twelve monthly hexagrams move from Bo in the Xu month to Kun in the Hai month: Bo has one yang line nearly extinguished, while Kun is pure yin across all six lines. We have not yet reached the Fu hexagram in the Zi month, when one yang returns. Based on this Five Elements interpretation, I still expect the bearish trend to continue; I wouldn’t treat a rebound after a sharp drop as a reversal.
As in the original post, I’m using Ji earth to represent Bitcoin: earth controls water, and water represents wealth. But strong wealth doesn’t mean prices must rise, and strong water alone isn’t enough to conclude that prices must fall. The month’s energy points to a bearish bias, while last week’s close below 77,500 is the evidence we can verify right now.
My main scenario this week is another break to new lows after a rebound meets resistance. First watch for resistance at 76,200–76,400, then at 77,100–77,500. If the price can’t reclaim those levels, I’m leaning toward another test of 73,500, followed by 71,000–71,400 if that level breaks.
That range isn’t an arbitrary lower target: 71,000 was the lower bound of my original November projection. If we extend last week’s drop from around 81,200 to 73,500 by a factor of 1.272, the projection also lands near 71,400. The two estimates are close, but neither guarantees that price will reach those levels.
72,500 is just a level to watch along the way, not confirmation that the decline has stopped. In the longer-term bearish projection, 62,000 remains on the table, but I’m not claiming we’ll reach it this week.
If the daily candle closes back above 77,500 and a retest holds, this bearish path will need to be reassessed. I shouldn’t stubbornly stick to it after the market has already risen substantially.
Last week, I forecast downside levels of 76,300 and 75,000, but the actual drop went further; I underestimated the potential range. To be clear this time: I don’t think 73,500 has been proven to be the bottom. The main risk I’m watching this week is a further decline toward 71,000.
This is a personal view based on traditional Chinese metaphysics, for reference only—not investment advice.
In my October 17 Jiazi post, I projected a 10% drop from 81,490, putting the price at 73,000. This morning, spot hit a low of 73,510, already close to that level. But my view isn’t “the target is almost here, so the decline is over.” Last week closed near 74,851, and 77,500 has been decisively lost. The bears haven’t given up control yet.
At the Start of Winter, the month shifts to Ji Hai, when Hai water is in season. The twelve monthly hexagrams move from Bo in the Xu month to Kun in the Hai month: Bo has one yang line nearly extinguished, while Kun is pure yin across all six lines. We have not yet reached the Fu hexagram in the Zi month, when one yang returns. Based on this Five Elements interpretation, I still expect the bearish trend to continue; I wouldn’t treat a rebound after a sharp drop as a reversal.
As in the original post, I’m using Ji earth to represent Bitcoin: earth controls water, and water represents wealth. But strong wealth doesn’t mean prices must rise, and strong water alone isn’t enough to conclude that prices must fall. The month’s energy points to a bearish bias, while last week’s close below 77,500 is the evidence we can verify right now.
My main scenario this week is another break to new lows after a rebound meets resistance. First watch for resistance at 76,200–76,400, then at 77,100–77,500. If the price can’t reclaim those levels, I’m leaning toward another test of 73,500, followed by 71,000–71,400 if that level breaks.
That range isn’t an arbitrary lower target: 71,000 was the lower bound of my original November projection. If we extend last week’s drop from around 81,200 to 73,500 by a factor of 1.272, the projection also lands near 71,400. The two estimates are close, but neither guarantees that price will reach those levels.
72,500 is just a level to watch along the way, not confirmation that the decline has stopped. In the longer-term bearish projection, 62,000 remains on the table, but I’m not claiming we’ll reach it this week.
If the daily candle closes back above 77,500 and a retest holds, this bearish path will need to be reassessed. I shouldn’t stubbornly stick to it after the market has already risen substantially.
Last week, I forecast downside levels of 76,300 and 75,000, but the actual drop went further; I underestimated the potential range. To be clear this time: I don’t think 73,500 has been proven to be the bottom. The main risk I’m watching this week is a further decline toward 71,000.
This is a personal view based on traditional Chinese metaphysics, for reference only—not investment advice.
