$BTC reclaimed 75,000, then fell back: $1 billion wiped out in 10 minutes, and this liquidation wave isn’t over yet
Bottom line: If 75,000–75,500 can’t be reclaimed and held, treat any bounce as a relief rally. If 73,163 (the 200-day moving average) doesn’t hold at the close, the next level to watch is 72,000–72,500. Don’t make a big directional bet ahead of CPI.
What happened Sunday night:
- $BTC briefly fell to 73,708–73,743; $ETH broke below 2,125, $SOL fell below 90 (with a low around 86), and XRP fell below 1.10
- Around $1 billion in leveraged positions was wiped out in 10 minutes; $745 million was liquidated in one hour, 96% of it longs. The 24-hour total exceeded $1.05 billion, including $930 million in longs, with 211,000 traders liquidated
- Strategy’s 849,000 BTC holdings officially fell below the 75,451 cost basis, leaving it with around $500 million in unrealized losses
- The flow of funds is still bleeding: ETFs saw $1.282 billion in outflows last week, and IBIT has had net redemptions for six consecutive days
What the bulls are saying:
- @CryptoBullet1: The 200-day moving average arrived right on schedule; the two-month correction is nearing its end
- @mikealfred: The next bull market phase is about to begin; Grant Cardone added to his position at 73,500
- The Fear & Greed Index is at 28; extreme fear itself is a contrarian signal
What the bears are saying:
- The liquidation fuel hasn’t run out: yesterday’s liquidation map showed around $1.55 billion in long liquidation positions clustered near 75,174, ready to trigger a cascade if the price touches that level
- ETFs are still bleeding, with IBIT seeing six straight days of outflows; the Nasdaq fell 5.52% last Thursday, and the AI stock sell-off has yet to stabilize
- At 73,510, the price is only about $350 above the 200-day moving average at 73,163, and it has already wicked down to that level once
My take:
- The current price is around 74,970. It reclaimed 75,000 but then lost it again—reclaiming a level doesn’t mean holding it. Don’t mistake a wick for a bottom
- 73,163 is the last line of defense. Don’t buy if it fails to hold at the close; only talk about a bottom once the price reclaims 75,000–75,500 and holds above it
- China’s CPI is out today at 09:30, followed by U.S. CPI on Tuesday. Don’t make a big directional bet ahead of the data
Bottom line: If 75,000–75,500 can’t be reclaimed and held, treat any bounce as a relief rally. If 73,163 (the 200-day moving average) doesn’t hold at the close, the next level to watch is 72,000–72,500. Don’t make a big directional bet ahead of CPI.
What happened Sunday night:
- $BTC briefly fell to 73,708–73,743; $ETH broke below 2,125, $SOL fell below 90 (with a low around 86), and XRP fell below 1.10
- Around $1 billion in leveraged positions was wiped out in 10 minutes; $745 million was liquidated in one hour, 96% of it longs. The 24-hour total exceeded $1.05 billion, including $930 million in longs, with 211,000 traders liquidated
- Strategy’s 849,000 BTC holdings officially fell below the 75,451 cost basis, leaving it with around $500 million in unrealized losses
- The flow of funds is still bleeding: ETFs saw $1.282 billion in outflows last week, and IBIT has had net redemptions for six consecutive days
What the bulls are saying:
- @CryptoBullet1: The 200-day moving average arrived right on schedule; the two-month correction is nearing its end
- @mikealfred: The next bull market phase is about to begin; Grant Cardone added to his position at 73,500
- The Fear & Greed Index is at 28; extreme fear itself is a contrarian signal
What the bears are saying:
- The liquidation fuel hasn’t run out: yesterday’s liquidation map showed around $1.55 billion in long liquidation positions clustered near 75,174, ready to trigger a cascade if the price touches that level
- ETFs are still bleeding, with IBIT seeing six straight days of outflows; the Nasdaq fell 5.52% last Thursday, and the AI stock sell-off has yet to stabilize
- At 73,510, the price is only about $350 above the 200-day moving average at 73,163, and it has already wicked down to that level once
My take:
- The current price is around 74,970. It reclaimed 75,000 but then lost it again—reclaiming a level doesn’t mean holding it. Don’t mistake a wick for a bottom
- 73,163 is the last line of defense. Don’t buy if it fails to hold at the close; only talk about a bottom once the price reclaims 75,000–75,500 and holds above it
- China’s CPI is out today at 09:30, followed by U.S. CPI on Tuesday. Don’t make a big directional bet ahead of the data