In the previous post, I treated 0.001692 as the dividing line where “a further break would mean the next leg down.” This time, price actually moved through it: the four-hour candle opened at 0.001741, hit an intraday low of 0.001606—5.1% below that line—and closed back at 0.001741, leaving the candle with no net change.

This leg started at 0.001493, then climbed steadily on the four-hour chart to 0.002476 before pulling back. The price is now at 0.001741, and 24-hour trading volume has also fallen from the period high of 45.36 million USDT to 23.53 million, just over half.

The price action this time was a little different. The last few times it fell below a line like this, it often managed to recover by the close; this candle had a 10.1% high-low range, moved both ways, and ended back where it started. The final hour was up 0.81%, with a low of 0.0017 and a close at 0.001741, still 1.6% below the hourly high of 0.001769. The price recovered, but it didn't really push through.

The thing that really didn’t line up was volume. This 4-hour candle traded 1.17 billion tokens, versus 2.00 billion in the previous candle, down 41%. The condition stated in the previous post was that to say this slide is over, we’d need to see volume genuinely expand at the moment the low breaks. That didn’t happen this time. At the same time, 24-hour trading value is now only 79% of what it was at the time of the previous post. So I read this as an incomplete next leg, not a new acceleration phase.

The 24-hour reading did recover from -26% in the previous post to -17.9%, while the price only moved from 0.001737 to 0.001741. What looks better is the baseline, not the price: the reference price from 24 hours ago has rolled off, while the price itself has barely moved.

The funding rate is -0.0937%; at the time of the previous post, it was still around -0.03%, so the negative rate has widened to more than three times that level. The price hasn’t moved lower, but funding costs have become more one-sided. That’s the second thing that doesn’t line up.

The next dividing lines are still the same two: close above 0.001807 and hold, and this breakdown can count as reclaimed; break below 0.001606 again, and that would be the next leg. We’d also need to see whether volume genuinely expands at the moment the low breaks. Keep the opposite scenario in mind too: with a range width of 10.1%, one 4-hour candle could cover it, so this reclaim could just as easily be given back.

$ONE #MarketAnalysis