Market maker’s perspective: $BTC 75,600 close broke through—how to read the V-shaped rebound?
📊 07:46 snapshot: Current price 74,870.1; 24h high 76,160 / low 73,385; 24h change about −1.30%. OI: 33,824.6 coins, about $2.532 billion, down about 1,029.0 coins since 01:38. Current funding rate: 0.0020%/8h (08:00 settlement: 0.0013%).
━━━
The 05:00 candle was this morning’s turning point. The 75,600 lower boundary had held through 35 consecutive 1H closes since 11-07 18:00 (the 22:00 and 23:00 candles closed above 76,000; all the others stayed within the band). At 05:00, a single candle closed at 74,094.1, breaking below it by $1,505.9. It dipped to 73,385, setting a new 24h low. Trading volume was 1.58 million contracts—the highest in the last 12 candles and about 27 times the 04:00 candle’s volume.
A V-shaped move played out in 30 minutes: first a −2.48% plunge to around 73,863, then two rebounds of +1.02% and +1.53%. The 07:00 candle is still forming, with a high of 75,698.4—its wick has already poked $98.4 above 75,600. A wick doesn’t count as a close.
📌 If I were the market maker: Breaking through a level that held for 35 candles takes real money—and the 1.58 million contracts traded in the 05:00 candle show that some were buying the dip while others were running for the exits. In the 07:28 order book: long/short ratio 2.888 (above p90), taker buys at 57.1%, and no liquidity walls within ±0.6% nearby. Chasers have already piled in—I wouldn’t chase now. I’d wait for the 08:00 close to tell me whether 75,600 has really been lost or this was a false breakdown.
📌 Retail traders following the market maker: wait for confirmation; don’t chase the rally—
Invalidation levels (based on 1H closes):
✅ 08:00 close back above 75,600 → false breakdown confirmed; next watch 76,160
❌ 08:00 close below 74,433.4 (the 06:00 close) → more than half the rebound given back; next watch the 74,000 round number, then 73,385
One more note: the calls in the previous two rounds of this cycle were both wrong—the bearish call at 05:58 was invalidated by the V-shaped rebound, and the sideways call at 06:28 was invalidated by the sharp +1.53% surge. So this round is about letting the move settle, not chasing the rally.
For discussion and simulation only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
📊 07:46 snapshot: Current price 74,870.1; 24h high 76,160 / low 73,385; 24h change about −1.30%. OI: 33,824.6 coins, about $2.532 billion, down about 1,029.0 coins since 01:38. Current funding rate: 0.0020%/8h (08:00 settlement: 0.0013%).
━━━
The 05:00 candle was this morning’s turning point. The 75,600 lower boundary had held through 35 consecutive 1H closes since 11-07 18:00 (the 22:00 and 23:00 candles closed above 76,000; all the others stayed within the band). At 05:00, a single candle closed at 74,094.1, breaking below it by $1,505.9. It dipped to 73,385, setting a new 24h low. Trading volume was 1.58 million contracts—the highest in the last 12 candles and about 27 times the 04:00 candle’s volume.
A V-shaped move played out in 30 minutes: first a −2.48% plunge to around 73,863, then two rebounds of +1.02% and +1.53%. The 07:00 candle is still forming, with a high of 75,698.4—its wick has already poked $98.4 above 75,600. A wick doesn’t count as a close.
📌 If I were the market maker: Breaking through a level that held for 35 candles takes real money—and the 1.58 million contracts traded in the 05:00 candle show that some were buying the dip while others were running for the exits. In the 07:28 order book: long/short ratio 2.888 (above p90), taker buys at 57.1%, and no liquidity walls within ±0.6% nearby. Chasers have already piled in—I wouldn’t chase now. I’d wait for the 08:00 close to tell me whether 75,600 has really been lost or this was a false breakdown.
📌 Retail traders following the market maker: wait for confirmation; don’t chase the rally—
Invalidation levels (based on 1H closes):
✅ 08:00 close back above 75,600 → false breakdown confirmed; next watch 76,160
❌ 08:00 close below 74,433.4 (the 06:00 close) → more than half the rebound given back; next watch the 74,000 round number, then 73,385
One more note: the calls in the previous two rounds of this cycle were both wrong—the bearish call at 05:58 was invalidated by the V-shaped rebound, and the sideways call at 06:28 was invalidated by the sharp +1.53% surge. So this round is about letting the move settle, not chasing the rally.
For discussion and simulation only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
