Just last night, I said Strategy’s bitcoin was only a few hundred dollars away from its cost basis. Early this morning, the price plunged straight through it—the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin treasury is officially sitting on unrealized losses 📉
Strategy disclosed to the SEC on 11-02 that, as of 11-01, it held 849,327 $BTC , with a total cost of $64.08 billion and an average purchase price of $75,451.
Early this morning, bitcoin briefly traded at $74,863 on Coinbase. Its current price this morning is about $74,456, with an intraday low of $73,510—all below the cost basis. At $74,863, the holdings are worth about $63.58 billion, an unrealized loss of about $500 million—compared with a cushion of more than $2 billion at the start of the month.
Bitcoin also briefly touched $74,722 last Friday, but it hasn’t closed below its cost basis on any day since August 20. Tonight’s close will be the real test.
CEO Phong Le has said that falling below the cost basis triggers no contractual consequences. For every $1,000 below the cost basis, the company has about $849 million in paper losses. MSTR closed at around $129 last Friday, down about 15% year to date.
What to watch:
① If tonight’s daily close is back above $75,451: it was just an intraday dip below the level, and the cost basis holds; yesterday’s three scenarios remain unchanged.
② If the daily close is below the cost basis: it will be the first daily close below that level since August 20. The mNAV premium, preferred stock dividends, and refinancing will all need to be factored in, putting pressure on MSTR’s premium.
③ As usual, there’s a weekly 8-K tonight: watch whether it bought this week, and at what price—continued buying signals “buying more as it falls”; a pause in buying would be another signal. The final MSCI list is also due on 11-11.
The cost basis is not a liquidation price, and it won’t force the company to sell its coins. But it’s a mirror of market sentiment: when even the largest publicly listed bitcoin treasury is sitting on unrealized losses, the market’s patience is being worn away one dollar at a time.
Data as of: 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC
For informational purposes only; this does not constitute investment advice.
Strategy disclosed to the SEC on 11-02 that, as of 11-01, it held 849,327 $BTC , with a total cost of $64.08 billion and an average purchase price of $75,451.
Early this morning, bitcoin briefly traded at $74,863 on Coinbase. Its current price this morning is about $74,456, with an intraday low of $73,510—all below the cost basis. At $74,863, the holdings are worth about $63.58 billion, an unrealized loss of about $500 million—compared with a cushion of more than $2 billion at the start of the month.
Bitcoin also briefly touched $74,722 last Friday, but it hasn’t closed below its cost basis on any day since August 20. Tonight’s close will be the real test.
CEO Phong Le has said that falling below the cost basis triggers no contractual consequences. For every $1,000 below the cost basis, the company has about $849 million in paper losses. MSTR closed at around $129 last Friday, down about 15% year to date.
What to watch:
① If tonight’s daily close is back above $75,451: it was just an intraday dip below the level, and the cost basis holds; yesterday’s three scenarios remain unchanged.
② If the daily close is below the cost basis: it will be the first daily close below that level since August 20. The mNAV premium, preferred stock dividends, and refinancing will all need to be factored in, putting pressure on MSTR’s premium.
③ As usual, there’s a weekly 8-K tonight: watch whether it bought this week, and at what price—continued buying signals “buying more as it falls”; a pause in buying would be another signal. The final MSCI list is also due on 11-11.
The cost basis is not a liquidation price, and it won’t force the company to sell its coins. But it’s a mirror of market sentiment: when even the largest publicly listed bitcoin treasury is sitting on unrealized losses, the market’s patience is being worn away one dollar at a time.
Data as of: 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC
For informational purposes only; this does not constitute investment advice.
