Seasonality says $BTC hasn't bottomed yet. Price action says it has.
So which matters more? I lean heavily on patterns, seasonality, pivots — I trade time more than price. But right now I'm calling the bottom in, even though it doesn't match seasonal expectations.
Why? Because price action confirmation comes first. Before you trust any pattern, fractal, or pivot, you need to see how price behaves. You validate the setup with structure. If the structure doesn't confirm, the pattern's edge weakens.
Eventually $BTC will break the 4-year cycle. It won't repeat the same historical script forever. If you think it will, you're living in fantasy land. You have to stay open to the idea that old patterns can fail. Most people don't get that.
Also — I'm a swing trader. I trade higher timeframes. I'm here to catch the big, meaningful moves, not chase dopamine on the 5-minute chart trying to 100x a portfolio. I've been positioned long since $62K–$65K and I'm staying bullish because I'm in from lower. That's the plan. Slow, steady, precise. That's how you build wealth over time.
Bottom line: Structure and price action come before pivots and seasonality. We're not going to bottom in Q4 and top in Q4 forever. Read the chart, respect the structure, trade the trend, and size for the long game.
So which matters more? I lean heavily on patterns, seasonality, pivots — I trade time more than price. But right now I'm calling the bottom in, even though it doesn't match seasonal expectations.
Why? Because price action confirmation comes first. Before you trust any pattern, fractal, or pivot, you need to see how price behaves. You validate the setup with structure. If the structure doesn't confirm, the pattern's edge weakens.
Eventually $BTC will break the 4-year cycle. It won't repeat the same historical script forever. If you think it will, you're living in fantasy land. You have to stay open to the idea that old patterns can fail. Most people don't get that.
Also — I'm a swing trader. I trade higher timeframes. I'm here to catch the big, meaningful moves, not chase dopamine on the 5-minute chart trying to 100x a portfolio. I've been positioned long since $62K–$65K and I'm staying bullish because I'm in from lower. That's the plan. Slow, steady, precise. That's how you build wealth over time.
Bottom line: Structure and price action come before pivots and seasonality. We're not going to bottom in Q4 and top in Q4 forever. Read the chart, respect the structure, trade the trend, and size for the long game.