CPI doesn’t come out until Tuesday, but $BTC has been hovering around 75,718 all day—we closed Saturday at 75,910, less than $200 away. This level is paper-thin now.
Price is 75,912, with an intraday range of 75,571–76,200. Weekend volume plunged 58%. Nobody’s buying or selling—it’s just grinding sideways. The 50-day moving average at 81,765 is overhead, and the 200-day at 73,176 is below. This is a bottoming zone in between; don’t mistake it for a reversal.
CPI drops Tuesday, November 10, at 21:30. This time is a little different: because prices weren’t collected during last October’s shutdown, the BLS won’t publish the year-over-year figure—only the month-over-month number. The market expects +0.3% month over month and +0.2% for core (previously +0.6%/+0.3%). The Cleveland Fed’s estimates are lower: +0.24%/+0.21%.
Why does this one number matter so much? After nonfarm payrolls came in at a whopping 165,000, the odds of a December rate hike are already at 75–78%. If monthly CPI comes in above 0.3%, those 78% odds could head toward 100%, and crypto will get hit first. If it’s just above 0.2%, rate-hike expectations could ease up a bit.
I’m still leaning toward further downside, not buying the dip. Buying here is just handing the bears easy targets, while chasing shorts is like playing with fire. I’m doing neither. Here’s what would invalidate my view: if the daily candle closes back above 80,000, I’ll admit I’m wrong and stand aside; if it closes below 75,718, my bearish bias gets stronger.
Before Tuesday’s CPI, are you waiting for the data to come out before making a move, or betting on a direction now?
Not investment advice.
#BTC #CPI #Federal Reserve
Price is 75,912, with an intraday range of 75,571–76,200. Weekend volume plunged 58%. Nobody’s buying or selling—it’s just grinding sideways. The 50-day moving average at 81,765 is overhead, and the 200-day at 73,176 is below. This is a bottoming zone in between; don’t mistake it for a reversal.
CPI drops Tuesday, November 10, at 21:30. This time is a little different: because prices weren’t collected during last October’s shutdown, the BLS won’t publish the year-over-year figure—only the month-over-month number. The market expects +0.3% month over month and +0.2% for core (previously +0.6%/+0.3%). The Cleveland Fed’s estimates are lower: +0.24%/+0.21%.
Why does this one number matter so much? After nonfarm payrolls came in at a whopping 165,000, the odds of a December rate hike are already at 75–78%. If monthly CPI comes in above 0.3%, those 78% odds could head toward 100%, and crypto will get hit first. If it’s just above 0.2%, rate-hike expectations could ease up a bit.
I’m still leaning toward further downside, not buying the dip. Buying here is just handing the bears easy targets, while chasing shorts is like playing with fire. I’m doing neither. Here’s what would invalidate my view: if the daily candle closes back above 80,000, I’ll admit I’m wrong and stand aside; if it closes below 75,718, my bearish bias gets stronger.
Before Tuesday’s CPI, are you waiting for the data to come out before making a move, or betting on a direction now?
Not investment advice.
#BTC #CPI #Federal Reserve