$SKYAI surged to 0.04108, but just five minutes later, a single wick plunged back to 0.0357. Meanwhile, the share of accounts going long actually climbed to 65%. I’m siding with the bears on this move.
At 7 p.m., the hourly trading volume was 11.82 million U. In the preceding hours, it was only a few hundred thousand to two million U per hour, so volume really did pick up. But as the price pushed higher, aggressive buyers never took the lead.
Of those ten 15-minute candles from 17:30 to 19:45, only the 18:45 candle had an aggressive buy/sell ratio above 1; the 19:45 candle fell to 0.84. The rally was driven by resting orders holding the price up and short positions getting squeezed—not by buyers chasing with real money.
What’s even more striking is the retail crowd. The share of accounts going long rose steadily from 60.9% at 6 p.m. to 65.2% at 8 p.m. When that five-minute candle plunged to 0.0357 at 19:50, the share of long accounts was still rising even as the price fell. Open interest value spiked to 7.1 million U at 19:45, then dropped back to 6.55 million U just ten minutes later—some people had already headed for the exit. At 8 p.m., the funding rate was +0.0299%, up from just +0.0063% at 4 p.m. The longs are starting to pay the shorts.
That upper wick on October 25, which reached 0.03985, has been the ceiling for the past half month. Tonight’s price only broke above it briefly before failing to hold, and now it’s back below 0.039, churning.
The key resistance is 0.04108; if the price gets above it, I’m out. If it breaks below that 0.0357 wick, there’s a vacuum below.
Do you think this is a genuine breakout after more than half a month of sideways trading, or another round of retail investors passing the baton at the top?
#SKYAI #合约数据 #LongShortBattle
At 7 p.m., the hourly trading volume was 11.82 million U. In the preceding hours, it was only a few hundred thousand to two million U per hour, so volume really did pick up. But as the price pushed higher, aggressive buyers never took the lead.
Of those ten 15-minute candles from 17:30 to 19:45, only the 18:45 candle had an aggressive buy/sell ratio above 1; the 19:45 candle fell to 0.84. The rally was driven by resting orders holding the price up and short positions getting squeezed—not by buyers chasing with real money.
What’s even more striking is the retail crowd. The share of accounts going long rose steadily from 60.9% at 6 p.m. to 65.2% at 8 p.m. When that five-minute candle plunged to 0.0357 at 19:50, the share of long accounts was still rising even as the price fell. Open interest value spiked to 7.1 million U at 19:45, then dropped back to 6.55 million U just ten minutes later—some people had already headed for the exit. At 8 p.m., the funding rate was +0.0299%, up from just +0.0063% at 4 p.m. The longs are starting to pay the shorts.
That upper wick on October 25, which reached 0.03985, has been the ceiling for the past half month. Tonight’s price only broke above it briefly before failing to hold, and now it’s back below 0.039, churning.
The key resistance is 0.04108; if the price gets above it, I’m out. If it breaks below that 0.0357 wick, there’s a vacuum below.
Do you think this is a genuine breakout after more than half a month of sideways trading, or another round of retail investors passing the baton at the top?
#SKYAI #合约数据 #LongShortBattle
