SOL’s rebound has been completely erased: less than 2% above the 11/5 low, and ETFs have had no net inflows on any of 10 consecutive trading days. I’m not calling this a bottom yet.
The bullish candle that pushed SOL near 98 on 11/4 was completely erased in just three days. In this downturn, SOL hasn’t just fallen along with the broader market—it has also steadily weakened relative to BTC.
Binance spot data (11/8 20:07 Taipei time): SOL around 89.73, down 0.2% in 24 hours, trading in a range of 88.73–90.15; BTC around 75,989, unchanged; ETH around 2,241, down 0.1%. On the 11/4 daily candle (Binance UTC daily candles, which open and close at 08:00 Taipei time), SOL hit a high of 98.14 and closed at 95.61. On the 11/5 daily candle, it hit an intraday low of 88.30 and closed at 89.33. The current price is about 6.2% below the 11/4 close and about 8.6% below the 11/4 high, and only about 1.6% above the 11/5 low. SOL/BTC is around 0.001181, down about 6.2% from its 10/28 close of 0.001259.
There’s no follow-through from fund flows either. Farside shows that U.S. spot SOL ETFs had no net inflows on any of the 10 consecutive trading days from 10/26 to 11/6 (the most recent U.S. trading day; markets are closed on weekends): there was a net outflow of $27.7 million on 10/29, followed by another net outflow of $24.2 million on 11/6 (BSOL: -$14.4 million). Since 10/19, cumulative net outflows have totaled about $114 million, with just one day of modest net inflows—$600,000 on 10/21. In the derivatives market, the latest SOL perpetual funding rate is around 0.009%, slightly positive but not high. At least based on funding rates, there’s no obvious sign of overcrowded shorts.
What does this mean?
That move on 11/4 looked more like a broad-market risk rebound than a return of buying interest in SOL itself. BTC and ETH are both hovering near their lows, while SOL can’t even hold its relative strength against BTC, and money is still slowly flowing out of its ETFs. In a market like this, weaker coins are usually the last to be bought back.
My take: SOL is worth watching, but I wouldn’t consider around 89 a bottom right now. I have three conditions to watch for: a daily close holding above the 11/5 low of 88.30, followed by a move back above 92; at least one clear day of net inflows into U.S. spot SOL ETFs; and SOL/BTC finding a floor and moving back above 0.0012. None of the three conditions has been met yet. For now, it’s just “grinding near the lows,” not “starting a reversal.” If it really breaks below 88.30, I’ll wait for the next support level to be confirmed rather than rushing to buy the dip.
With rules like “what conditions would make me change my view,” the biggest risk is changing your story after the fact. OWL is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering U.S. stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities. Strategy vaults have been deployed on multiple EVM networks, with Robinhood Chain and Arc in progress. Strategy managers can turn views like this into public, on-chain strategies that anyone can verify. As of 10/31, TVL was 7,528,536 USDC, with 4,620 holder addresses. You can first Follow managers you’re interested in and Star their strategies, then decide whether to Subscribe.
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Do you think SOL will hold above 88 and rise again, or does it need to break below the 11/5 low first?
This is just my personal opinion. Please manage your position size and risk accordingly.
#SOL #Solana #ETF fund flows
The bullish candle that pushed SOL near 98 on 11/4 was completely erased in just three days. In this downturn, SOL hasn’t just fallen along with the broader market—it has also steadily weakened relative to BTC.
Binance spot data (11/8 20:07 Taipei time): SOL around 89.73, down 0.2% in 24 hours, trading in a range of 88.73–90.15; BTC around 75,989, unchanged; ETH around 2,241, down 0.1%. On the 11/4 daily candle (Binance UTC daily candles, which open and close at 08:00 Taipei time), SOL hit a high of 98.14 and closed at 95.61. On the 11/5 daily candle, it hit an intraday low of 88.30 and closed at 89.33. The current price is about 6.2% below the 11/4 close and about 8.6% below the 11/4 high, and only about 1.6% above the 11/5 low. SOL/BTC is around 0.001181, down about 6.2% from its 10/28 close of 0.001259.
There’s no follow-through from fund flows either. Farside shows that U.S. spot SOL ETFs had no net inflows on any of the 10 consecutive trading days from 10/26 to 11/6 (the most recent U.S. trading day; markets are closed on weekends): there was a net outflow of $27.7 million on 10/29, followed by another net outflow of $24.2 million on 11/6 (BSOL: -$14.4 million). Since 10/19, cumulative net outflows have totaled about $114 million, with just one day of modest net inflows—$600,000 on 10/21. In the derivatives market, the latest SOL perpetual funding rate is around 0.009%, slightly positive but not high. At least based on funding rates, there’s no obvious sign of overcrowded shorts.
What does this mean?
That move on 11/4 looked more like a broad-market risk rebound than a return of buying interest in SOL itself. BTC and ETH are both hovering near their lows, while SOL can’t even hold its relative strength against BTC, and money is still slowly flowing out of its ETFs. In a market like this, weaker coins are usually the last to be bought back.
My take: SOL is worth watching, but I wouldn’t consider around 89 a bottom right now. I have three conditions to watch for: a daily close holding above the 11/5 low of 88.30, followed by a move back above 92; at least one clear day of net inflows into U.S. spot SOL ETFs; and SOL/BTC finding a floor and moving back above 0.0012. None of the three conditions has been met yet. For now, it’s just “grinding near the lows,” not “starting a reversal.” If it really breaks below 88.30, I’ll wait for the next support level to be confirmed rather than rushing to buy the dip.
With rules like “what conditions would make me change my view,” the biggest risk is changing your story after the fact. OWL is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering U.S. stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities. Strategy vaults have been deployed on multiple EVM networks, with Robinhood Chain and Arc in progress. Strategy managers can turn views like this into public, on-chain strategies that anyone can verify. As of 10/31, TVL was 7,528,536 USDC, with 4,620 holder addresses. You can first Follow managers you’re interested in and Star their strategies, then decide whether to Subscribe.
I’m involved with OWL
OWL website 👉 https://dapp.owlowl.ai
Do you think SOL will hold above 88 and rise again, or does it need to break below the 11/5 low first?
This is just my personal opinion. Please manage your position size and risk accordingly.
#SOL #Solana #ETF fund flows
