Binance price: 1430; HYPE price: 1660

Why is the difference so large?

Because Binance has 1 billion tokens, while HYPE's total market cap is simply 1660 × 1 billion.

If the IPO is valued at 1.5 trillion, then a 10% HYPE premium seems reasonable.

Binance is completely different, though.

Because the total supply is uncertain—it could be 12.8 billion or 16.9 billion, or some number in between.

So we don't know how many shares it would be split into.

Binance customer support replied:

The following are “not yet considered common shares, and are therefore not included”:

· Unexercised options

· Unvested restricted stock units (RSUs)

· Convertible securities that have not yet been converted into common shares

· Shares that may be issued under the underwriters’ over-allotment option (green shoe)

· Shares reserved under the equity incentive plan for future issuance (not yet granted)

If the split is into 12.8 billion shares, the current price will be too high, and it’ll crash.

I estimate it’s highly likely they’ll split into 14–15 billion shares.

What does everyone think?