📊 Current position
RKLB is currently trading at around $53, down about 65% from its high of $151. The earnings report will be released after the market closes on November 9, Eastern Time (early morning on November 10, Beijing Time)—that is, tomorrow evening.
🔍 What the market is betting on
The key to this earnings report isn’t revenue—it will most likely come in within the $250–265 million guidance range. Three things will really determine the stock’s direction:
1. Will the Neutron rocket be delayed again? (Its first flight is currently targeted for 2027; it has already been delayed once.)
2. Will free cash flow outflow be kept below $110 million?
3. Did anything go wrong with the closing of the Iridium acquisition?
🐂 Bull case
- The backlog is expected to exceed $3.02 billion in Q3, up 137% year over year—a deep reservoir of future revenue.
- Secured a $397 million defense contract from the U.S. Space Force. Only two companies in the U.S. can provide integrated satellite manufacturing and launch services.
- Expectations have already hit rock bottom, so “no bad news is good news.”
🐻 Bear risks
- Executives have been selling shares consecutively, and the shares from September’s $1.9 billion offering are still being absorbed.
- The company has clearly stated that it still won’t achieve positive cash flow for the next several quarters.
- Neutron has already been delayed once, damaging market confidence.
- Valuation remains high: even at $53 a share, relative to current revenue, the market has already priced in a substantial growth premium.
💡 A framework to consider
- Uneventful earnings → up 8–12%
- Some bright spots → up 15–20%
- Truly bad news → down more than 20%
So the question isn’t “will it fall?” but how much of a drawdown you can tolerate, and whether your position is already large enough to keep you up at night.
⚠️ Position-sizing advice
- If RKLB makes up more than 15–20% of your total portfolio, adding more before earnings is essentially a bet, not an investment.
- If your position is small and you can tolerate short-term swings of more than 20%, you could make a small bet on the “no bad news is good news” scenario.
- One practical approach: Sit tight before earnings and wait until after the report to check Tuesday’s closing price. If the report is uneventful but the price is still above Friday’s close, that suggests sellers have already exited; there’s no rush to consider buying in.
This is your money, after all. The information above does not constitute investment advice.
