$HOT 18 A sharp spike, but this time spot led the rally, with perpetuals chasing behind: spot was around 0.000454, up about 25% over 24h, while perpetuals were around 0.000401, about 11% below the index price.
Who’s paying: the perpetuals’ predicted funding rate was about -0.7%/4h, meaning shorts were paying longs. Open interest rose from about 3.2 million U in the afternoon to about 4.2 million U, while the funding rate kept getting more negative. This suggests new positions were biased short, with some traders opening shorts into the rally. The backdrop: HOT-to-HoloFuel conversion went live on 11/1; after surging to 0.000598 on 11/3, the price pulled back by about 40% over the next two days. The official terms state that conversion is one-way: HoloFuel received in the exchange cannot be converted back to HOT.
Short-side view: with the basis this deep and the funding rate this negative, shorting now means paying a hefty funding rate to bet that perpetuals will converge toward spot. The risk of a short squeeze outweighs the room for a pullback. Wait for the funding rate to turn positive and the basis to narrow, then consider a weakening trend if the price spikes on low volume. A high-volume move above 0.000598 would invalidate the short thesis.
#HOT现货领涨 #HoloFuel conversion goes live
Who’s paying: the perpetuals’ predicted funding rate was about -0.7%/4h, meaning shorts were paying longs. Open interest rose from about 3.2 million U in the afternoon to about 4.2 million U, while the funding rate kept getting more negative. This suggests new positions were biased short, with some traders opening shorts into the rally. The backdrop: HOT-to-HoloFuel conversion went live on 11/1; after surging to 0.000598 on 11/3, the price pulled back by about 40% over the next two days. The official terms state that conversion is one-way: HoloFuel received in the exchange cannot be converted back to HOT.
Short-side view: with the basis this deep and the funding rate this negative, shorting now means paying a hefty funding rate to bet that perpetuals will converge toward spot. The risk of a short squeeze outweighs the room for a pullback. Wait for the funding rate to turn positive and the basis to narrow, then consider a weakening trend if the price spikes on low volume. A high-volume move above 0.000598 would invalidate the short thesis.
#HOT现货领涨 #HoloFuel conversion goes live
