The bond market is closed for the weekend; the only thing moving is people’s mouths.
After Friday’s jobs report came out, several Fed officials clearly struck a tougher tone. Daly said the labor market was solid, giving them room to get inflation under control, and that more tightening was probably still ahead. Hammack was more explicit: she wants more frequent, smaller adjustments—not one final hike and then calling it a day. It sounds moderate, but in practice it makes rate hikes routine.
What’s interesting is the University of Michigan survey: in November, the public’s expectations for inflation over the coming year actually fell to 4.3%, a three-month low. Officials say inflation is stubborn; ordinary people think it’s cooling. The two views don’t line up.
I’m not too concerned about whether they hike this time in December; the 77% probability has practically made that a done deal. What I care about is the pace. If they really stick to small, gradual hikes, that means a prolonged drain on liquidity—and risk assets hate that kind of slow bleed. $BTC has been stuck around 75,800 for three days. What’s missing isn’t good news; it’s certainty. Tuesday’s CPI report is next week’s key event. The previous reading was 3.7%; that number will be the dividing line.
#美联储 #宏观 #Bitcoin
After Friday’s jobs report came out, several Fed officials clearly struck a tougher tone. Daly said the labor market was solid, giving them room to get inflation under control, and that more tightening was probably still ahead. Hammack was more explicit: she wants more frequent, smaller adjustments—not one final hike and then calling it a day. It sounds moderate, but in practice it makes rate hikes routine.
What’s interesting is the University of Michigan survey: in November, the public’s expectations for inflation over the coming year actually fell to 4.3%, a three-month low. Officials say inflation is stubborn; ordinary people think it’s cooling. The two views don’t line up.
I’m not too concerned about whether they hike this time in December; the 77% probability has practically made that a done deal. What I care about is the pace. If they really stick to small, gradual hikes, that means a prolonged drain on liquidity—and risk assets hate that kind of slow bleed. $BTC has been stuck around 75,800 for three days. What’s missing isn’t good news; it’s certainty. Tuesday’s CPI report is next week’s key event. The previous reading was 3.7%; that number will be the dividing line.
#美联储 #宏观 #Bitcoin