A lot of people are waiting for Tuesday’s MSCI news about MSTR as if it were a black swan. Honestly, this goose has been plucked clean already.
Let’s get the timeline straight: MSCI will publish its final adjustment list after 5 p.m. ET on November 11. If MSTR is removed, it won’t take effect until after the close on November 30. Strategy itself has said it expects to be removed under the new “non-operating companies” rule adopted on October 15. If a company has already acknowledged the outcome in advance, who’s going to be shocked when it’s announced on Tuesday?
Then there’s that “up to $11.8 billion in passive selling.” Pay attention to the words “up to”—that’s an estimate of the maximum. Some pundits turn it straight into “$11.8 billion in selling is guaranteed.” Others post “MSCI removes Strategy on November 11,” confusing the announcement date with the effective date, then add a wave count predicting a second-wave rebound to 131.92–141.25. The logic doesn’t even line up, but the price targets are precise to the penny.
What’s really worth thinking about isn’t how much gets sold that day. It’s whether Saylor’s cycle of issuing shares at a premium and issuing preferred stock to buy Bitcoin can keep turning once passive funds are no longer natural buyers. MSTR closed Friday at 128.93, while BTC was hovering above 75,000. Its 849,327 coins have an average cost of 75,451, so it’s basically trading right around its cost basis.
The volatility on the announcement day will most likely be driven by sentiment; the trading on the 30th is what really matters. Anyone going all-in early on “the bad news is priced in” or shorting aggressively is just providing liquidity to someone else.
#MSTR #MSCI #BTC
Let’s get the timeline straight: MSCI will publish its final adjustment list after 5 p.m. ET on November 11. If MSTR is removed, it won’t take effect until after the close on November 30. Strategy itself has said it expects to be removed under the new “non-operating companies” rule adopted on October 15. If a company has already acknowledged the outcome in advance, who’s going to be shocked when it’s announced on Tuesday?
Then there’s that “up to $11.8 billion in passive selling.” Pay attention to the words “up to”—that’s an estimate of the maximum. Some pundits turn it straight into “$11.8 billion in selling is guaranteed.” Others post “MSCI removes Strategy on November 11,” confusing the announcement date with the effective date, then add a wave count predicting a second-wave rebound to 131.92–141.25. The logic doesn’t even line up, but the price targets are precise to the penny.
What’s really worth thinking about isn’t how much gets sold that day. It’s whether Saylor’s cycle of issuing shares at a premium and issuing preferred stock to buy Bitcoin can keep turning once passive funds are no longer natural buyers. MSTR closed Friday at 128.93, while BTC was hovering above 75,000. Its 849,327 coins have an average cost of 75,451, so it’s basically trading right around its cost basis.
The volatility on the announcement day will most likely be driven by sentiment; the trading on the 30th is what really matters. Anyone going all-in early on “the bad news is priced in” or shorting aggressively is just providing liquidity to someone else.
#MSTR #MSCI #BTC