I’ve been losing money trading crypto all year. At the end of the day, it’s because I speculated too much and used too much leverage. Looking back, though, I’ve been a value investor in the A-share market—a bit of an old-timer in my thinking—so that balance has meant this year hasn’t been too bad.
Looking ahead, I’m bullish on the chemicals sector in the A-share market. Hardware will probably be oversupplied in the future, and the U.S. AI boom is hitting the brakes. I saw an election analysis poll saying things had gone badly even in Trump’s Texas stronghold, because data centers were built in residential neighborhoods and electricity prices surged. Ultimately, the U.S. doesn’t have enough basic power-generation capacity. If you’re stockpiling graphics cards, don’t use leverage to do it. Although Trump says he’ll accept the election results, deep down he won’t take it lying down. The oil correction is probably about over, and the odds of the U.S. and Iran escalating into war again are rising.