For 2026, Crypto Twitter’s tone has turned cautious—that was the consensus analyst Ignas summed up on X yesterday: gains will be concentrated in a handful of areas, with $BTC , RWA/tokenization, prediction markets, and perpetual products singled out. Most altcoins are expected to remain under pressure, while new tokens with high FDVs and low circulating supplies were also named as perennial short candidates.
Prediction markets put numbers on it the same day: on Polymarket, the odds of BTC reaching $70,000 before year-end are 52%, while the odds of it returning to $100,000 are just 9%. On Kalshi, the two most heavily clustered year-end price ranges are $70,000–$80,000, with a combined probability of about 35%. To be clear, these are figures derived from market participants’ bids—not forecasts, much less conclusions.
Back to the charts: BTC is currently around $75,870, down 0.1% over 24 hours, with a range of $75,571 to $76,250 and roughly $367 million in 24-hour spot trading volume. Over the past 7 days, the range has been $74,888 to $81,196, and BTC is down 1.2%. Its current price is less than $1,000 above the 7-day low.
So, not much to do about it: weekend trading is thin to begin with, and BTC’s weekly close is tonight. Around 2,554 BTC options also expire on Deribit at 4 p.m., with max pain at $76,000, so volatility could pick up around expiry. Before the close, should we first watch whether $75,571 holds, or whether BTC can reclaim $76,250?
#预测市场 #2026 Outlook
Prediction markets put numbers on it the same day: on Polymarket, the odds of BTC reaching $70,000 before year-end are 52%, while the odds of it returning to $100,000 are just 9%. On Kalshi, the two most heavily clustered year-end price ranges are $70,000–$80,000, with a combined probability of about 35%. To be clear, these are figures derived from market participants’ bids—not forecasts, much less conclusions.
Back to the charts: BTC is currently around $75,870, down 0.1% over 24 hours, with a range of $75,571 to $76,250 and roughly $367 million in 24-hour spot trading volume. Over the past 7 days, the range has been $74,888 to $81,196, and BTC is down 1.2%. Its current price is less than $1,000 above the 7-day low.
So, not much to do about it: weekend trading is thin to begin with, and BTC’s weekly close is tonight. Around 2,554 BTC options also expire on Deribit at 4 p.m., with max pain at $76,000, so volatility could pick up around expiry. Before the close, should we first watch whether $75,571 holds, or whether BTC can reclaim $76,250?
#预测市场 #2026 Outlook
