AI stocks rebound after a sharp sell-off! Three major tests over the next two weeks!
U.S. AI stocks took a severe hit on Thursday amid concerns that data center construction is slowing, cloud giants are scaling back computing capacity purchases, and high-cost financing may not be sustainable.
Chip stocks rebounded notably on Friday, led by tech stocks that had fallen the most. There is still a long way to go before confidence fully recovers. The market panic stems from repricing future earnings and financing—not from the end of growth in the AI industry.
Is this rebound merely a technical recovery, or the start of a new rally? Watch three key factors.
1. Inflation and Fed policy
The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, far above expectations of 65,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Strong employment gives the Fed more reason to maintain a restrictive policy, while interest rates and Treasury yields may continue to weigh on tech stock valuations.
But there is another side to this: if AI stocks continue to plunge, rising corporate financing costs and declining capital expenditures could also tighten financial conditions, in turn affecting the Fed’s assessment.
A sharp drop in oil prices this week should help ease overall inflationary pressures in the months ahead. The CPI on November 10 and PPI on November 13 are the most important upcoming data releases.
2. Can AI financing continue?
Anthropic plans to begin its IPO roadshow next week. Institutional demand and the final valuation will be important indicators.
If the offering is still heavily oversubscribed despite a lower valuation, it would show that the financing window remains open. If the company continues to face pricing pressure, the valuation framework for the entire AI supply chain could be reassessed.
3. Can orders and profits materialize?
Nvidia’s earnings report on the 17th will be a key milestone.
Watch whether cloud giants continue to expand capital expenditures, whether orders for next-generation GPUs are strong, and whether data center delivery and customer returns on investment justify the spending.
Microsoft has recently begun phasing out its use of some older-generation GPUs rented from Oracle. This shows that although AI demand remains strong, customers are raising their expectations for chip performance and returns on investment.
My view: AI still has a future, but the market is shifting from chasing concepts to screening for cash flow. Stocks may rebound in the short term, but whether a sustained rally can take shape in the medium term will still depend on financing, orders, and profits. Don’t mistake a technical rebound for a signal to buy across the board.
#美国拟收紧数据中心监管，AI扩张或面临新约束 #估值承压下Anthropic还能如期上市吗 $NVDAB $BTC $MSFTB
U.S. AI stocks took a severe hit on Thursday amid concerns that data center construction is slowing, cloud giants are scaling back computing capacity purchases, and high-cost financing may not be sustainable.
Chip stocks rebounded notably on Friday, led by tech stocks that had fallen the most. There is still a long way to go before confidence fully recovers. The market panic stems from repricing future earnings and financing—not from the end of growth in the AI industry.
Is this rebound merely a technical recovery, or the start of a new rally? Watch three key factors.
1. Inflation and Fed policy
The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, far above expectations of 65,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Strong employment gives the Fed more reason to maintain a restrictive policy, while interest rates and Treasury yields may continue to weigh on tech stock valuations.
But there is another side to this: if AI stocks continue to plunge, rising corporate financing costs and declining capital expenditures could also tighten financial conditions, in turn affecting the Fed’s assessment.
A sharp drop in oil prices this week should help ease overall inflationary pressures in the months ahead. The CPI on November 10 and PPI on November 13 are the most important upcoming data releases.
2. Can AI financing continue?
Anthropic plans to begin its IPO roadshow next week. Institutional demand and the final valuation will be important indicators.
If the offering is still heavily oversubscribed despite a lower valuation, it would show that the financing window remains open. If the company continues to face pricing pressure, the valuation framework for the entire AI supply chain could be reassessed.
3. Can orders and profits materialize?
Nvidia’s earnings report on the 17th will be a key milestone.
Watch whether cloud giants continue to expand capital expenditures, whether orders for next-generation GPUs are strong, and whether data center delivery and customer returns on investment justify the spending.
Microsoft has recently begun phasing out its use of some older-generation GPUs rented from Oracle. This shows that although AI demand remains strong, customers are raising their expectations for chip performance and returns on investment.
My view: AI still has a future, but the market is shifting from chasing concepts to screening for cash flow. Stocks may rebound in the short term, but whether a sustained rally can take shape in the medium term will still depend on financing, orders, and profits. Don’t mistake a technical rebound for a signal to buy across the board.
#美国拟收紧数据中心监管，AI扩张或面临新约束 #估值承压下Anthropic还能如期上市吗 $NVDAB $BTC $MSFTB
