Next week’s calendar will decide whether BTC goes to 70,000 or 85,000
BTC is now at 75,800, down 40% from its peak of 126,199. The Fear & Greed Index is at 47, versus 67 a week ago. U.S. spot ETFs saw outflows of 412 million on November 6 alone, with 403 million coming from IBIT. The Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 46 consecutive days and now sits at -0.15%. U.S. buying hasn’t returned.
There’s something happening every day next week.
November 9, Monday: Polymarket Protocol V2 goes live, deliberately avoiding midterm election week. Hyperliquid’s first L2, Elysium, also launches. Both are narrative-level events, but whether they attract capital depends on Tuesday.
November 10, Tuesday, 21:30 Beijing time: October CPI. This is the most important data point of the week. October nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs—not a weak number. The market isn’t debating whether rates will be cut anymore; it’s asking whether they’ll be raised once more. If CPI comes in above expectations, 75,000 probably won’t hold. Only a lower-than-expected reading gives the market a chance to rebound.
November 12, Wednesday: Blur deprecates its frontend, and Blend stops matching new loans. The NFT lending sector is officially cooling off. This isn’t a price event; it’s a liquidity event.
November 13, Thursday, 21:30: October PPI—the second test after CPI.
There are also nine Fed officials scheduled to speak throughout the week: Goolsbee, Barkin, Waller, Logan, Schmid, Paulson, Hammack, Daly, and Williams. Their schedules are even more packed than earnings season. Any one of them could shift expectations.
Prediction markets have already put the odds on the table: a 52% chance BTC touches 70,000 before year-end. This isn’t a tail risk; it’s one of the base-case scenarios.
My plan is simple: no adding leverage before CPI. 75,000 is the line separating bulls and bears this week. A daily close back above 75,000, together with ETFs turning to net inflows, would count as confirmation. If 75,000 gives way, wait and see whether there’s support near 70,000. If 70,000 also breaks, this isn’t a pullback—it’s a cycle.
Don’t try to predict CPI. Prepare positions for both possible outcomes. That’s the only thing to do next week.
BTC is now at 75,800, down 40% from its peak of 126,199. The Fear & Greed Index is at 47, versus 67 a week ago. U.S. spot ETFs saw outflows of 412 million on November 6 alone, with 403 million coming from IBIT. The Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 46 consecutive days and now sits at -0.15%. U.S. buying hasn’t returned.
There’s something happening every day next week.
November 9, Monday: Polymarket Protocol V2 goes live, deliberately avoiding midterm election week. Hyperliquid’s first L2, Elysium, also launches. Both are narrative-level events, but whether they attract capital depends on Tuesday.
November 10, Tuesday, 21:30 Beijing time: October CPI. This is the most important data point of the week. October nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs—not a weak number. The market isn’t debating whether rates will be cut anymore; it’s asking whether they’ll be raised once more. If CPI comes in above expectations, 75,000 probably won’t hold. Only a lower-than-expected reading gives the market a chance to rebound.
November 12, Wednesday: Blur deprecates its frontend, and Blend stops matching new loans. The NFT lending sector is officially cooling off. This isn’t a price event; it’s a liquidity event.
November 13, Thursday, 21:30: October PPI—the second test after CPI.
There are also nine Fed officials scheduled to speak throughout the week: Goolsbee, Barkin, Waller, Logan, Schmid, Paulson, Hammack, Daly, and Williams. Their schedules are even more packed than earnings season. Any one of them could shift expectations.
Prediction markets have already put the odds on the table: a 52% chance BTC touches 70,000 before year-end. This isn’t a tail risk; it’s one of the base-case scenarios.
My plan is simple: no adding leverage before CPI. 75,000 is the line separating bulls and bears this week. A daily close back above 75,000, together with ETFs turning to net inflows, would count as confirmation. If 75,000 gives way, wait and see whether there’s support near 70,000. If 70,000 also breaks, this isn’t a pullback—it’s a cycle.
Don’t try to predict CPI. Prepare positions for both possible outcomes. That’s the only thing to do next week.