Palantir’s earnings blew expectations away, yet the stock fell for 8 straight days. On Friday, it finally caught its breath.
First, the facts: Q3 results released after the market close on November 2 showed revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.44—both above expectations. U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148% year over year, surpassing U.S. government revenue ($953 million) for the first time ever. The full-year revenue guidance was raised to $8.530–$8.534 billion, with Q4 guidance of $2.649–$2.653 billion.
But the market wasn’t buying it: after earnings, the stock fell for 8 straight days, tumbling from $198.73 to $154.99, down 22% in total. It didn’t rebound until Friday, November 6, gaining 3.48% to close at $160.38. It was still down 12.89% on the 5th, down 19.32% for the month, and down 9.77% year to date—about 25% below its 52-week high of $212.94.
My take:
① There’s nothing wrong with the earnings themselves; the commercial inflection point is real. U.S. commercial revenue surpassed government revenue for the first time, showing that Palantir is no longer relying solely on government contracts, and that its AI software commercialization story has gained traction.
② What weighed on the stock was orders: growth in total contract value (TCV) plunged from 49% last quarter to 6%. The market is worried that 96% growth isn’t sustainable; even outstanding current-quarter numbers can’t erase doubts about the future.
③ Valuation remains sky-high: the P/E ratio is about 115, and the stock is still below its 50-day moving average ($186.39). Friday was just an oversold bounce. At $160, it had only just moved above the 200-day moving average ($153.78)—holding above it would signal stabilization; failing to hold would make this just a pause before another leg down.
④ The sector is moving in tandem: $NVDA also rose about 2.8% that day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.09%. AI stocks were broadly bouncing from oversold levels; it wasn’t just Palantir recovering. Don’t mistake sector beta for stock-specific alpha.
Risks: If TCV growth continues to slow, the 96% revenue growth will quickly be proven unsustainable. A P/E of 115 leaves very little room for error; any guidance that falls short of expectations will be punished twice as hard. With the December rate decision approaching, rising expectations of rate hikes could continue to weigh on high-valuation growth stocks.
As for trading: impressive earnings don’t mean you should chase the stock. First see whether it can hold the 200-day moving average; only talk about stabilization once it holds above $160. Aggressive investors can wait for a pullback and confirmation; conservative investors can wait for the next earnings report to confirm a recovery in TCV.
Personal research, not investment advice.
$PLTR $NVDA #Palantir #美股 #人工智能 #财报 #Binance
First, the facts: Q3 results released after the market close on November 2 showed revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.44—both above expectations. U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148% year over year, surpassing U.S. government revenue ($953 million) for the first time ever. The full-year revenue guidance was raised to $8.530–$8.534 billion, with Q4 guidance of $2.649–$2.653 billion.
But the market wasn’t buying it: after earnings, the stock fell for 8 straight days, tumbling from $198.73 to $154.99, down 22% in total. It didn’t rebound until Friday, November 6, gaining 3.48% to close at $160.38. It was still down 12.89% on the 5th, down 19.32% for the month, and down 9.77% year to date—about 25% below its 52-week high of $212.94.
My take:
① There’s nothing wrong with the earnings themselves; the commercial inflection point is real. U.S. commercial revenue surpassed government revenue for the first time, showing that Palantir is no longer relying solely on government contracts, and that its AI software commercialization story has gained traction.
② What weighed on the stock was orders: growth in total contract value (TCV) plunged from 49% last quarter to 6%. The market is worried that 96% growth isn’t sustainable; even outstanding current-quarter numbers can’t erase doubts about the future.
③ Valuation remains sky-high: the P/E ratio is about 115, and the stock is still below its 50-day moving average ($186.39). Friday was just an oversold bounce. At $160, it had only just moved above the 200-day moving average ($153.78)—holding above it would signal stabilization; failing to hold would make this just a pause before another leg down.
④ The sector is moving in tandem: $NVDA also rose about 2.8% that day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.09%. AI stocks were broadly bouncing from oversold levels; it wasn’t just Palantir recovering. Don’t mistake sector beta for stock-specific alpha.
Risks: If TCV growth continues to slow, the 96% revenue growth will quickly be proven unsustainable. A P/E of 115 leaves very little room for error; any guidance that falls short of expectations will be punished twice as hard. With the December rate decision approaching, rising expectations of rate hikes could continue to weigh on high-valuation growth stocks.
As for trading: impressive earnings don’t mean you should chase the stock. First see whether it can hold the 200-day moving average; only talk about stabilization once it holds above $160. Aggressive investors can wait for a pullback and confirmation; conservative investors can wait for the next earnings report to confirm a recovery in TCV.
Personal research, not investment advice.
$PLTR $NVDA #Palantir #美股 #人工智能 #财报 #Binance
