“TSMC enters the memory business: how many years of price-hike gains do $MU and $SNDK have left?”
The Information reported on November 7, citing two people familiar with the matter, that TSMC is studying 3D-DRAM production at the request of its largest customer, Nvidia. It is considering building a new memory wafer fab or acquiring and retrofitting an existing plant. Investment decisions, budgets, and production timelines have not been set. TSMC said it remains focused on its core logic-chip business; Nvidia did not respond immediately.
**Meanwhile**
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are also pursuing 3D-DRAM. The backdrop is that AI demand is squeezing memory supplies and pushing up prices. 3D-DRAM vertically stacks memory cells; heat dissipation, process integration, and stable yields are the main technical hurdles, and mass production could take several years.
**The week just past**
On the AI selloff night of November 5, Micron fell 17.46% in a single day to close at $656.39, SanDisk dropped 22.26% to close at $806.43, and the Nasdaq fell 5.52%. Nvidia’s third-quarter guidance calls for revenue of $108 billion and a gross margin of 74%. Its earnings report will be released after market close on November 17.
**What to watch**
The short-term price-hike story is unchanged, but the long-term landscape is set to shift. If TSMC really enters the market, memory will no longer be a business split among three players. But mass production will take years, so Micron and SanDisk will retain pricing power for the next three years. Around $650 was the intraday low Micron touched on November 5; if it fails to hold, there is room for further declines. If TSMC announces a specific fab budget and production timeline before the end of 2027, a reassessment of the industry landscape could come sooner.
$MU $SNDK #存储芯片 #AIMemory
The Information reported on November 7, citing two people familiar with the matter, that TSMC is studying 3D-DRAM production at the request of its largest customer, Nvidia. It is considering building a new memory wafer fab or acquiring and retrofitting an existing plant. Investment decisions, budgets, and production timelines have not been set. TSMC said it remains focused on its core logic-chip business; Nvidia did not respond immediately.
**Meanwhile**
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are also pursuing 3D-DRAM. The backdrop is that AI demand is squeezing memory supplies and pushing up prices. 3D-DRAM vertically stacks memory cells; heat dissipation, process integration, and stable yields are the main technical hurdles, and mass production could take several years.
**The week just past**
On the AI selloff night of November 5, Micron fell 17.46% in a single day to close at $656.39, SanDisk dropped 22.26% to close at $806.43, and the Nasdaq fell 5.52%. Nvidia’s third-quarter guidance calls for revenue of $108 billion and a gross margin of 74%. Its earnings report will be released after market close on November 17.
**What to watch**
The short-term price-hike story is unchanged, but the long-term landscape is set to shift. If TSMC really enters the market, memory will no longer be a business split among three players. But mass production will take years, so Micron and SanDisk will retain pricing power for the next three years. Around $650 was the intraday low Micron touched on November 5; if it fails to hold, there is room for further declines. If TSMC announces a specific fab budget and production timeline before the end of 2027, a reassessment of the industry landscape could come sooner.
$MU $SNDK #存储芯片 #AIMemory