Let’s first check the levels: yesterday morning, I wrote that holding 75,600 would mean a shakeout; if it failed, look to 73,200. Over the 48-hour weekend, $BTC churned between 75,460 and 76,250. It’s now at 75,792—just grazing 75,600, with neither a break below nor a bounce back. For now, I’m sticking with that call.
The weekend’s biggest news wasn’t on the charts, but in regulation: on Friday, the U.S. Treasury’s FinCEN ordered that, in 30 days, U.S. financial institutions may no longer transfer funds to MEXC. The reason: over five years, the exchange allegedly handled at least $16 billion in illicit funds, nearly $1.5 billion of it linked to Russian sanctions evasion. MEXC says it’s operating normally, but it’s the largest exchange to be cut off under the 9714 Act. The compliance noose is tightening.
Meanwhile, money is flowing out: on Friday, U.S. spot $BTC ETF net outflows totaled $412 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for $403 million. November’s cumulative outflows are around $1.28 billion, with just one day of inflows, on Wednesday. The Fear and Greed Index is at 25: extreme fear.
But don’t look at just one side of the picture: Strive posted net earnings of $509 million in Q3 and added 15,124 $BTC in October alone. Some are selling, while others are buying. U.S. October CPI is due Tuesday at 21:30, with core CPI expected at 0.2%—that’s the real judge next week.
Just my personal opinion, not financial advice: bearish, but I wouldn’t chase the downside. If 75,600 holds, wait for CPI; if it breaks, watch 73,200. Will Tuesday’s CPI cool things down or make them heat up again? Which side are you on?
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #BTC #CryptoNews
The weekend’s biggest news wasn’t on the charts, but in regulation: on Friday, the U.S. Treasury’s FinCEN ordered that, in 30 days, U.S. financial institutions may no longer transfer funds to MEXC. The reason: over five years, the exchange allegedly handled at least $16 billion in illicit funds, nearly $1.5 billion of it linked to Russian sanctions evasion. MEXC says it’s operating normally, but it’s the largest exchange to be cut off under the 9714 Act. The compliance noose is tightening.
Meanwhile, money is flowing out: on Friday, U.S. spot $BTC ETF net outflows totaled $412 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for $403 million. November’s cumulative outflows are around $1.28 billion, with just one day of inflows, on Wednesday. The Fear and Greed Index is at 25: extreme fear.
But don’t look at just one side of the picture: Strive posted net earnings of $509 million in Q3 and added 15,124 $BTC in October alone. Some are selling, while others are buying. U.S. October CPI is due Tuesday at 21:30, with core CPI expected at 0.2%—that’s the real judge next week.
Just my personal opinion, not financial advice: bearish, but I wouldn’t chase the downside. If 75,600 holds, wait for CPI; if it breaks, watch 73,200. Will Tuesday’s CPI cool things down or make them heat up again? Which side are you on?
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #BTC #CryptoNews
