The 4-year cycle is dead, and nobody wants to tell you
October closed down 7.2%, marking two Octobers in a row in the red (-3.9% in 2025). That hadn’t happened in the last ten years. If the four-year cycle were still alive, October 2026 was supposed to be the month of takeoff. It wasn’t.
The cycle thesis was built on issuance: less new supply, higher prices. Today, the network issues 450 BTC a day, and ETFs move hundreds of millions in a week. New supply matters less and less; financial flows matter more and more.
What still works isn’t a calendar, but key levels: the average on-chain cost basis (53.995), MVRV (1,44), and the 200-day moving average (73.240).
The cycle being dead isn’t bearish. It means the rules have changed, while many are still trading by the old clock.
Are you going to keep selling “the year after the halving” out of habit?
#Bitcoin #Cripto #BinanceSquare
This is not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.
October closed down 7.2%, marking two Octobers in a row in the red (-3.9% in 2025). That hadn’t happened in the last ten years. If the four-year cycle were still alive, October 2026 was supposed to be the month of takeoff. It wasn’t.
The cycle thesis was built on issuance: less new supply, higher prices. Today, the network issues 450 BTC a day, and ETFs move hundreds of millions in a week. New supply matters less and less; financial flows matter more and more.
What still works isn’t a calendar, but key levels: the average on-chain cost basis (53.995), MVRV (1,44), and the 200-day moving average (73.240).
The cycle being dead isn’t bearish. It means the rules have changed, while many are still trading by the old clock.
Are you going to keep selling “the year after the halving” out of habit?
#Bitcoin #Cripto #BinanceSquare
This is not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.
