Morning meeting notes: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have just had their worst week since late June, and cumulative flows for 2026 have turned negative. My view is that this isn’t just two or three days of noise; redemptions aren’t over yet. Until we see consecutive net inflows and year-to-date flows return to positive territory, don’t mistake weekend sideways trading for confirmation of a bottom.
Key data: Farside shows total net outflows of about $1.282 billion from November 2 to 6: Monday -$398.6 million, Tuesday -$115.6 million, Wednesday +$74.6 million, Thursday -$430.2 million, and Friday -$411.9 million. The Block, citing SoSoValue, says this was the 7th-largest weekly outflow since the ETFs launched. At the start of the week, cumulative flows for the year were still about $368 million net positive; by Friday’s close, they had become approximately $914.1 million net negative. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $403.0 million in outflows on Friday, about 88% of the day’s gross outflows, and roughly $1.210 billion for the week—nearly the bulk of the $1.282 billion total. Fidelity’s FBTC was the only fund to see net inflows on Friday, at +$42.8 million.
First, the core contradiction. On one hand, prices have been flat over the weekend, which can make it seem as though redemptions have already been priced in. On the other, flagship product IBIT is still seeing outflows, and Wednesday’s $74.6 million inflow wasn’t enough to change the picture for the week. Flat prices don’t mean the outflows are over.
Three sets of real-time data from Gate.
First, $BTC. Currently around 75,787, down about 0.18% over 24 hours, with a daily high of 76,214 and low of 75,544. Trading volume is about 881 million U. Open interest is about 4.61 billion U in notional value, the account long/short ratio is about 2.28, top traders’ long/short ratio is about 0.72 by positions and 0.48 by accounts, and the funding rate is about 0.01% per 8 hours. Open interest has not climbed back above 5 billion.
Second, $ETH. Currently around 2,237, down about 0.21% over 24 hours, with trading volume of about 1.155 billion U. Open interest is about 1.726 billion U in notional value, and the account long/short ratio is about 2.23. Farside records about $365.2 million in outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs last week, including $93.3 million on Friday. The Block, citing SoSoValue, says this marks a sixth consecutive week of net outflows, bringing the total for this year to about $405.6 million.
Third, $MSTR (for comparison). Currently around 127.4, down about 1.3% over 24 hours, with trading volume of about 6.24 million U. Open interest is about 27.92 million U in notional value, the account long/short ratio is about 2.88, and the funding rate is near zero. Treasury stocks aren’t acting like anyone is buying up the shares released by ETF redemptions.
My view: There isn’t enough evidence to read this week as the worst being over and a turning point being here. Outflows occurred on four of the five trading days, and the only day with inflows saw just $74.6 million. Another $411.9 million flowed out on Friday, mainly from IBIT. The market hasn’t shown signs of money flowing back in either: open interest is still around $4.6 billion, and the price hasn’t firmly reclaimed $76,400. I’d characterize this as ETF flows having turned negative in 2026, with redemptions not yet over.
What would prove this view wrong: If U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively record net inflows across all five U.S. trading days from November 9 to 13, and the year-to-date total returns above zero, then my view that “full-year flows have turned negative and redemptions aren’t over” is invalidated. On price action, a break above 76,400 followed by a high-volume close that holds, along with notional open interest rising above 5 billion U, would also invalidate this view.
Watch three signals next. First, Monday’s initial flow print: is IBIT still the main source of outflows? Second, can FBTC go from being the only fund with a positive figure to more funds turning positive? Third, does Bitcoin open interest rise from $4.6 billion toward $5 billion?
Let’s also check yesterday’s call. I wrote that Riot was selling coins to lock in a long-term lease, and my view was that it was selling coins to fund construction, not abandoning its thesis. I said this view would be invalidated by an official announcement that the lease had been terminated or the tenant’s commitment had been cut in half, or by a severe delay to the initial roughly 400 megawatts accompanied by a verifiable, substantial discount. There was no such announcement over the weekend, so the invalidation conditions weren’t met. The proxy stock IREN is currently around 21.86, still close to yesterday’s 21.74. The view holds for now.
One final question: Do you think this $1.28 billion in weekly redemptions looks more like a post-midterm-election risk-off flush, or has the buying power behind ETFs in 2026 already shifted gears?
Market observations only; not investment advice.