$BTC where does it stand on the higher timeframes? I’m comparing the current monthly and weekly charts with the previous two cycles (2018, 2022). Data: BTCUSDT spot on Binance.
📅 MONTHLY TIMEFRAME
• In the previous two cycles, the bottom came exactly 12 months after the peak (12/2017 → 12/2018, 11/2021 → 11/2022).
• This cycle: peak at 126k (10/2025), bottom at 58.1k (6/2026) just 8 months later, a 54% decline (the previous two times: −84% and −77%).
• Monthly RSI at the 6/2026 bottom was 40.8, within the 36–42 range of the previous two bottoms. It is currently around 50.
• Monthly Bollinger Bands are at their narrowest since 2019. Price is squeezed between the monthly EMA50 (~67.8k) and the BB middle band (~86.6k). The September rebound stalled right at the middle band.
• November is the 13th month after the peak, coinciding with the “bottom window” of the previous two cycles.
📈 WEEKLY TIMEFRAME
• The rebound from 62.3k → 87.4k crossed above the weekly EMA50, then turned back down. Weekly highs have been declining, from 87.4k to 81.2k.
• This week’s low was 74.9k, coinciding with the 50% retracement level (74.8k).
• Weekly RSI has fallen from 63 to 49. Weekly MACD has contracted for 5 consecutive weeks.
• The 67.7–67.8k zone brings together 3 levels: the weekly SMA200, the 78.6% retracement level, and the monthly EMA50.
🔁 TWO PAST PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE
• 3–5/2022: a rebound crossed above the weekly EMA50 and then failed; weekly RSI fell to 34, and price dropped a further roughly 45% in 6 weeks.
• 7–10/2023: the rebound stalled, price corrected 56%, briefly fell below the weekly SMA200, then reclaimed the weekly EMA21 and began a major rally.
The difference between the two instances: where price found support during the correction.
👀 LEVELS BEING WATCHED
• Weekly close relative to 74.8k and 76.7k (weekly EMA21).
• The 71.9k (61.8%) zone and 67.7–68k.
• November monthly close relative to the monthly EMA20 (~78.4k).
Event calendar: US CPI on 10/11, FOMC on 8–9/12.
There are only 2 cycles to compare, so the sample is very small. This is historical analysis, not a forecast or investment advice.
Tracking Binance Futures using a fixed set of rules. This post documents market conditions and is not investment advice.
#BTC #CryptoTrading #BTCthroughData
📅 MONTHLY TIMEFRAME
• In the previous two cycles, the bottom came exactly 12 months after the peak (12/2017 → 12/2018, 11/2021 → 11/2022).
• This cycle: peak at 126k (10/2025), bottom at 58.1k (6/2026) just 8 months later, a 54% decline (the previous two times: −84% and −77%).
• Monthly RSI at the 6/2026 bottom was 40.8, within the 36–42 range of the previous two bottoms. It is currently around 50.
• Monthly Bollinger Bands are at their narrowest since 2019. Price is squeezed between the monthly EMA50 (~67.8k) and the BB middle band (~86.6k). The September rebound stalled right at the middle band.
• November is the 13th month after the peak, coinciding with the “bottom window” of the previous two cycles.
📈 WEEKLY TIMEFRAME
• The rebound from 62.3k → 87.4k crossed above the weekly EMA50, then turned back down. Weekly highs have been declining, from 87.4k to 81.2k.
• This week’s low was 74.9k, coinciding with the 50% retracement level (74.8k).
• Weekly RSI has fallen from 63 to 49. Weekly MACD has contracted for 5 consecutive weeks.
• The 67.7–67.8k zone brings together 3 levels: the weekly SMA200, the 78.6% retracement level, and the monthly EMA50.
🔁 TWO PAST PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE
• 3–5/2022: a rebound crossed above the weekly EMA50 and then failed; weekly RSI fell to 34, and price dropped a further roughly 45% in 6 weeks.
• 7–10/2023: the rebound stalled, price corrected 56%, briefly fell below the weekly SMA200, then reclaimed the weekly EMA21 and began a major rally.
The difference between the two instances: where price found support during the correction.
👀 LEVELS BEING WATCHED
• Weekly close relative to 74.8k and 76.7k (weekly EMA21).
• The 71.9k (61.8%) zone and 67.7–68k.
• November monthly close relative to the monthly EMA20 (~78.4k).
Event calendar: US CPI on 10/11, FOMC on 8–9/12.
There are only 2 cycles to compare, so the sample is very small. This is historical analysis, not a forecast or investment advice.
Tracking Binance Futures using a fixed set of rules. This post documents market conditions and is not investment advice.
#BTC #CryptoTrading #BTCthroughData
