Today is November 8, 2026. I know many people are probably extremely fearful about Bitcoin’s recent price action, while others have become numb to it. Just open Jin10 Data, or any news app, and all you see is bearish news. So quite a lot of people think Bitcoin will keep falling, that we’re still in a bear market and the bull market hasn’t even arrived. Some also think Bitcoin is forming a weekly head-and-shoulders bottom, with the right shoulder bottoming at 67,000–68,000. I think exactly the opposite. I believe Bitcoin has indeed reached a bottom. Even though the weekly chart keeps printing red candles, I still expect Bitcoin to reach 93,000 before Christmas next month. I know that when Bitcoin was at 87,000 and I said it could reach 93,000 by year-end, many of you probably believed me. Now that Bitcoin has fallen to 75,000, I’m still saying it can reach 93,000 by year-end, and I’m sure many of you are quite skeptical. I don’t want to be someone who claims to have been right after the fact. Even after Bitcoin’s steep decline amid multiple bearish factors, I still believe it can reach 93,000 by year-end—that’s what makes the call worth something. Of course, talk is cheap, so here’s my reasoning. First, and most importantly: Since Bitcoin first broke above the 50-week MA in the 2018 bear market, every breakout has confirmed a bull market. For the following three years, Bitcoin only retested the 50-week MA and briefly fell below it; it never broke decisively below it. Whenever it did break below for real, it was already three years later and a bear market had begun. There has been just one exception: March 2020, when the COVID pandemic caused a global supply-chain breakdown. That was a once-in-200-years black swan event. For example, people say oil prices are high now, with crude oil futures often at $100. But back then, crude oil futures actually fell to -$20! What does that mean? In 200 years, we may only see crude oil futures go negative once. Global supply chains had broken down, production had ground to a halt, and nobody needed crude oil, yet oil wells kept pumping it out. Storing crude oil also costs money, so it was like the capitalist practice of dumping milk: producers were losing money on every barrel they sold. Anyway, you can see how significant it is for Bitcoin to break below the 50-week line. I digress. Second, Bitcoin has a cost basis. Some people seem to assume that Bitcoin has no cost, but that’s not true. Its cost is determined by the average electricity cost miners incur to mine one Bitcoin. At present, the electricity needed to mine one Bitcoin across the network costs roughly 72,000. In other words, if Bitcoin falls below $72,000, miners lose money on every coin they mine. Why keep mining at a loss? They could just buy Bitcoin on the market for less, and even shut down their machines and take a break. This is what’s commonly called the shutdown price. I’ve noticed a pattern that no other bloggers seem to have spotted. I may be the first person online to discover it. Since mining companies such as Bitdeer and Bitmain went public, Bitcoin has never actually touched the shutdown price, not even in a bear market. Its price has always stayed above the current shutdown price. Past bear markets were different: at the end of 2022, Bitcoin’s shutdown price was 18,000, and Bitcoin still hovered below 18,000 for nearly two months. I’ll venture to predict that this pattern will hold not only in the next bull market, but even in future bear markets. For example, suppose I’m the owner of Bitdeer or Bitmain, and Bitcoin mining is the core business of my publicly listed company. If my core business loses money for a while—if I lose money on every coin I mine—then no matter how much I explain to investors that Bitcoin will eventually make money, it will still hurt the share price. So, if I ran a mining company, I’d support the price when Bitcoin neared the shutdown price, at least keeping it above that level to stabilize my company’s share price and give investors an explanation. Bitcoin is now back above its shutdown price of 72,000, so mining companies have an incentive to support the price. The fact that Bitcoin stayed above 75,000 on Friday despite $400 million in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs supports this view. Third, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 24, putting it in the extreme fear zone. Investing goes against human nature: be greedy when others are fearful. You don’t have to be greedy, but at least don’t join in the fear. Fourth, and most importantly, I want to place a long-term bet early in the bull market. In every Bitcoin bull cycle, the price takes three steps forward and two steps back. When it takes those three steps forward, everyone thinks Bitcoin is going to the moon. But when it takes two steps back, people think Bitcoin is dead. That’s why holding a long-term position is easier said than done. Finally, I think next week will be when Bitcoin bottoms and reverses. Hold on to your Bitcoin and buckle up.