Neocloud valuations have been brutally slashed, but after going through the details of IREN’s earnings report, I actually think this sector has fallen into opportunity.
Hard data: IREN has doubled the re-contracting price for its older H100s, with new contracts priced 12% higher, and GPU capex structured as 90% prepaid over five years. So much for “GPU depreciation goes to zero in two years”? The tighter the market, the more valuable existing compute capacity becomes.
But don’t rush in blindly: CRWV is borrowing at high interest rates to buy GPUs, and the interest could eat through its cash flow. New players can’t even get through financing approval. Rosenblatt singled out NBIS as having low permitting risk for data centers in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina—among the players already wearing a life jacket.
On the other side, SpaceX just raised $40 billion to buy GPUs—Musk is selling compute to Google and Anthropic for easy profits while hoarding GPUs like crazy himself. Putting real money on the line is far more honest than talking about a bubble.
My take: the valuation collapse is the market paying back the debt from crowded trades, while renewal prices are putting a value on scarcity. This AI shakeout has two ways to die: companies without cash flow die from interest costs; those with contracts die from valuation compression—and the latter can still come back.
Weekend risk watch: the November 9 new-moon nighttime airstrike window, Trump’s 8-week action window, 7 ships already bombed in the Strait of Hormuz in November, and a 78% market-implied probability of a December rate hike. Position sizing matters more than opinions—stay lightly positioned and watch.
$NBIS $IREN $BTC
#AI #Neocloud #美股 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
NFA DYOR
Hard data: IREN has doubled the re-contracting price for its older H100s, with new contracts priced 12% higher, and GPU capex structured as 90% prepaid over five years. So much for “GPU depreciation goes to zero in two years”? The tighter the market, the more valuable existing compute capacity becomes.
But don’t rush in blindly: CRWV is borrowing at high interest rates to buy GPUs, and the interest could eat through its cash flow. New players can’t even get through financing approval. Rosenblatt singled out NBIS as having low permitting risk for data centers in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina—among the players already wearing a life jacket.
On the other side, SpaceX just raised $40 billion to buy GPUs—Musk is selling compute to Google and Anthropic for easy profits while hoarding GPUs like crazy himself. Putting real money on the line is far more honest than talking about a bubble.
My take: the valuation collapse is the market paying back the debt from crowded trades, while renewal prices are putting a value on scarcity. This AI shakeout has two ways to die: companies without cash flow die from interest costs; those with contracts die from valuation compression—and the latter can still come back.
Weekend risk watch: the November 9 new-moon nighttime airstrike window, Trump’s 8-week action window, 7 ships already bombed in the Strait of Hormuz in November, and a 78% market-implied probability of a December rate hike. Position sizing matters more than opinions—stay lightly positioned and watch.
$NBIS $IREN $BTC
#AI #Neocloud #美股 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
NFA DYOR