The US and Iran are at it again, but this latest flight to safety has nothing to do with Bitcoin.

In the early hours of the 7th, two missiles hit Iran’s Qeshm Island. There’s no consensus on who fired them. Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed unless the US accepts its seven conditions.

You’d think it was time to seek safety, but crude oil rose just 0.3% on Friday, while gold was dragged down by the nonfarm payrolls report. Bitcoin spent the weekend grinding between 7.55w and 7.63w, barely reacting to the missile strike.

The market has come to see fighting and negotiating as the new normal. What could really hurt crypto is the Strait staying closed: oil prices won’t come down, and neither will interest rates. In times like these, Bitcoin isn’t a safe-haven asset—it’s a risk asset.

Big Brother’s take is that geopolitical tensions can’t push Bitcoin higher; in the short term, the focus is on next Tuesday’s CPI report. It’ll only be out of the woods once it gets back above 8w. If it breaks below 7.55w, it could fall further.

Is Bitcoin still digital gold? #美伊局势再生变,避险需求会否升温? $BTC