《Day 14》
Today’s Saturday. Bitcoin is still grinding sideways around 75,000–76,000. Volume is low over the weekend, and price keeps sweeping back and forth by just a few hundred points. It’s not exactly painful to watch, but it’s not comfortable either—just exhausting.
Spot ETFs saw outflows of over 400 million yesterday, almost all from BlackRock. Fidelity, on the other hand, had some inflows. Institutions clearly haven’t come back to support the market, so I wasn’t expecting a weekend rally. The story about FinCEN cutting off MEXC’s dollar channels keeps getting repeated. I saw 100 million USDT moving to MEXC on-chain; I think it’s just funds being moved around for deposits and withdrawals, not a new incident. I took a quick look and moved on.
During the day, I came across a long post by Rui @YeruiZhang. He still expects a cyclical bottom in November. He says that before February next year, all sides want to dampen expectations for AI to outperform, but nobody wants the US stock market to actually crash. Hedge funds have built up a lot of short positions while retail investors keep buying the dip; when the funds cover their shorts, there could be a rally in late November or early December. The logic seems sound to me, but the timeline is too specific. It’s already the 7th today, Bitcoin is still grinding sideways, and ETFs are still seeing outflows. I’ll keep it in mind as one possible scenario, but not as a reason to open a trade.
Tonight I was in a meeting with Feihu until nearly midnight. I’m pretty convinced by his way of calling a bottom: if the Nasdaq keeps falling but Bitcoin doesn’t, that means big money is supporting the market, and only then can we call it a real bottom. He thinks this downturn has been too fast and hasn’t lasted long enough; there needs to be another sharp drop to flush out the longs. If 73,000 breaks, we go to 69,000; if that breaks, then 64,000–60,000. The two of us worked out a two-sided setup in the 75,000–76,000 range: place a short at 76,000 with a stop at 76,600, and a long around 75,500. Then use conditional orders to go long on a breakout above 78,000 and short on a breakdown below 73,600. If one triggers, close the position in the opposite direction.
#BTC
Today’s Saturday. Bitcoin is still grinding sideways around 75,000–76,000. Volume is low over the weekend, and price keeps sweeping back and forth by just a few hundred points. It’s not exactly painful to watch, but it’s not comfortable either—just exhausting.
Spot ETFs saw outflows of over 400 million yesterday, almost all from BlackRock. Fidelity, on the other hand, had some inflows. Institutions clearly haven’t come back to support the market, so I wasn’t expecting a weekend rally. The story about FinCEN cutting off MEXC’s dollar channels keeps getting repeated. I saw 100 million USDT moving to MEXC on-chain; I think it’s just funds being moved around for deposits and withdrawals, not a new incident. I took a quick look and moved on.
During the day, I came across a long post by Rui @YeruiZhang. He still expects a cyclical bottom in November. He says that before February next year, all sides want to dampen expectations for AI to outperform, but nobody wants the US stock market to actually crash. Hedge funds have built up a lot of short positions while retail investors keep buying the dip; when the funds cover their shorts, there could be a rally in late November or early December. The logic seems sound to me, but the timeline is too specific. It’s already the 7th today, Bitcoin is still grinding sideways, and ETFs are still seeing outflows. I’ll keep it in mind as one possible scenario, but not as a reason to open a trade.
Tonight I was in a meeting with Feihu until nearly midnight. I’m pretty convinced by his way of calling a bottom: if the Nasdaq keeps falling but Bitcoin doesn’t, that means big money is supporting the market, and only then can we call it a real bottom. He thinks this downturn has been too fast and hasn’t lasted long enough; there needs to be another sharp drop to flush out the longs. If 73,000 breaks, we go to 69,000; if that breaks, then 64,000–60,000. The two of us worked out a two-sided setup in the 75,000–76,000 range: place a short at 76,000 with a stop at 76,600, and a long around 75,500. Then use conditional orders to go long on a breakout above 78,000 and short on a breakdown below 73,600. If one triggers, close the position in the opposite direction.
#BTC