BTC at US$75,873: the three numbers separating this scare from capitulation
The price is 39.9% below its US$126,200 high (October 6, 2025). It hurts to see it like this. But there are three numbers almost nobody is looking at, and they tell a different story:
1. The 200-day moving average is at US$73,240, and $BTC has not closed a single day below it in the last 60.
2. The on-chain realized price—the market’s average cost—is at US$53,995. On average, the market is still in profit.
3. The MVRV is at 1.44. Historical bottoms have formed near 1.0.
In other words: this is still a correction within a trend. It’s not capitulation.
What would invalidate the thesis: a daily close below US$73,240. If that happens, the next significant support is 72,500 (May low) and, further down, 62,300 (August low). That’s where the outlook changes, and I’m saying it plainly.
Where is your invalidation level: at 73,000 or lower?
#Bitcoin #Cripto #BinanceSquare
This is not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.
The price is 39.9% below its US$126,200 high (October 6, 2025). It hurts to see it like this. But there are three numbers almost nobody is looking at, and they tell a different story:
1. The 200-day moving average is at US$73,240, and $BTC has not closed a single day below it in the last 60.
2. The on-chain realized price—the market’s average cost—is at US$53,995. On average, the market is still in profit.
3. The MVRV is at 1.44. Historical bottoms have formed near 1.0.
In other words: this is still a correction within a trend. It’s not capitulation.
What would invalidate the thesis: a daily close below US$73,240. If that happens, the next significant support is 72,500 (May low) and, further down, 62,300 (August low). That’s where the outlook changes, and I’m saying it plainly.
Where is your invalidation level: at 73,000 or lower?
#Bitcoin #Cripto #BinanceSquare
This is not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.
