It’s been a day since the nonfarm payrolls report, and everyone’s still chewing over that 165,000 figure. The senior brother thinks oil prices deserve more attention.
Employment far exceeded expectations, and bets on a December rate hike rose from 75% to around 80%. But Bank of America has an even more sobering statistic: the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has risen 111 basis points this year. Days when oil prices climbed contributed 196 basis points, while on all the other days, yields actually fell by 83 basis points.
Put simply, interest rates are following oil. Strong employment is just one more reason. For Tuesday’s CPI, the energy component is more worth watching than core inflation.
Crypto is taking it in stride. Since the payrolls report, Ether has been stuck between 2,220 and 2,250, without making a new low. The senior brother’s view is that there’s no clear short-term direction: let’s talk once it breaks above 2,250. If it falls below 2,220, it could head lower.
Do you think this rate hike is being driven by employment or by oil prices?
$BTC#非农就业数据推升加息预期 $ETH
Employment far exceeded expectations, and bets on a December rate hike rose from 75% to around 80%. But Bank of America has an even more sobering statistic: the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has risen 111 basis points this year. Days when oil prices climbed contributed 196 basis points, while on all the other days, yields actually fell by 83 basis points.
Put simply, interest rates are following oil. Strong employment is just one more reason. For Tuesday’s CPI, the energy component is more worth watching than core inflation.
Crypto is taking it in stride. Since the payrolls report, Ether has been stuck between 2,220 and 2,250, without making a new low. The senior brother’s view is that there’s no clear short-term direction: let’s talk once it breaks above 2,250. If it falls below 2,220, it could head lower.
Do you think this rate hike is being driven by employment or by oil prices?
$BTC#非农就业数据推升加息预期 $ETH
