$BTC
Bitcoin at 75,000—dare to buy? Sure, but daring to buy and daring to go all in are two different things.
75,000 is right around both the 50-week moving average and the short-term holder cost basis (about 76,000), making it a test level akin to the bull market’s “last line of defense.” The big bearish candle on November 7 brought the price down to around 75,000, triggering 1.23 billion in liquidations across the market. The long/short ratio was 3.02, and the bulls got steamrolled.
$ETFT.ETF
But why the price has fallen to this level is the key:
Leverage hasn’t been flushed out. The price has crashed 5%, but funding rates are still positive, meaning longs are still paying. Open interest has fallen to 34,200 BTC, and any rebound could be cut short by another round of liquidations. This is a temporary balance after short covering, not confirmation of a bottom.
ETFs are bleeding. From November 2 to 5, net outflows totaled about $870 million. BlackRock’s IBIT saw more than $100 million in outflows in a single day, and November’s cumulative net outflows still stand at $439 million. One day of inflows doesn’t change the monthly trend.
Macro pressures are mounting. After nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, the probability of a rate hike in December rose to around 77%. High interest rates weigh on volatile assets.
Valuations haven’t bottomed. MVRV is around 1.44; at historical cycle bottoms, it falls below 1.0.
So: 75,000 can be a level to watch for scaling into spot positions, but don’t go all in; it’s not time to make a heavily leveraged bet on a V-shaped rebound.
Before two signals appear, 75,000 is a battlefield, not a bottom: first, a high-volume reclaim of 76,650–77,000; second, consecutive net ETF inflows and funding rates turning negative or hitting zero. Until that happens, if the price breaks below 75,000 on rising volume, watch 73,000–74,000 below.
In a word: dare to buy, but buy tentatively—not on faith. Don’t use “it’s fallen a lot” as your reason; base your decision on whether the signals have appeared.#比特币ETF净流出4.12亿美元
Bitcoin at 75,000—dare to buy? Sure, but daring to buy and daring to go all in are two different things.
75,000 is right around both the 50-week moving average and the short-term holder cost basis (about 76,000), making it a test level akin to the bull market’s “last line of defense.” The big bearish candle on November 7 brought the price down to around 75,000, triggering 1.23 billion in liquidations across the market. The long/short ratio was 3.02, and the bulls got steamrolled.
$ETFT.ETF
But why the price has fallen to this level is the key:
Leverage hasn’t been flushed out. The price has crashed 5%, but funding rates are still positive, meaning longs are still paying. Open interest has fallen to 34,200 BTC, and any rebound could be cut short by another round of liquidations. This is a temporary balance after short covering, not confirmation of a bottom.
ETFs are bleeding. From November 2 to 5, net outflows totaled about $870 million. BlackRock’s IBIT saw more than $100 million in outflows in a single day, and November’s cumulative net outflows still stand at $439 million. One day of inflows doesn’t change the monthly trend.
Macro pressures are mounting. After nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, the probability of a rate hike in December rose to around 77%. High interest rates weigh on volatile assets.
Valuations haven’t bottomed. MVRV is around 1.44; at historical cycle bottoms, it falls below 1.0.
So: 75,000 can be a level to watch for scaling into spot positions, but don’t go all in; it’s not time to make a heavily leveraged bet on a V-shaped rebound.
Before two signals appear, 75,000 is a battlefield, not a bottom: first, a high-volume reclaim of 76,650–77,000; second, consecutive net ETF inflows and funding rates turning negative or hitting zero. Until that happens, if the price breaks below 75,000 on rising volume, watch 73,000–74,000 below.
In a word: dare to buy, but buy tentatively—not on faith. Don’t use “it’s fallen a lot” as your reason; base your decision on whether the signals have appeared.#比特币ETF净流出4.12亿美元