On this day one year ago, $STX closed at around 0.4113 USDT on Binance. Now it’s around 0.3413, down about 17% over the year.
I broke down the daily gains and losses across all 365 days of the year: it rose on 162 days and fell on 203.
What’s even more interesting is how much the best days mattered. If you remove the 5 biggest up days from the year, the return changes from about -17% to about -65%. On the other hand, if you avoid just the 5 worst down days, the year’s return would be around +48%.
The biggest moves were clustered together, too. On August 18, it closed at 0.12, its lowest close of the year. Then it rose about 13.6% on August 20, about 30% on the 21st, and about 15.6% on the 22nd. The days with the 1st-, 4th-, and 6th-largest gains of the year all fell just after the low.
That’s also why “waiting for confirmation before getting in” can be costly with small-cap coins: the big up days often come right after things look their worst. By the time you feel safe, those big green candles may already be over. The 5 worst days were scattered across February, July, September, and October, making them almost impossible to avoid in advance.
For futures traders, there’s another side to consider: a 30% gain in a single day would be enough to wipe out the margin on a 5x leveraged short position.
Are you more afraid of missing the best days, or of getting caught in the worst ones?
Data from Binance’s public spot STXUSDT daily candlestick API, as of November 7 at 23:07 Beijing time. The daily candle had not yet closed. Not investment advice.
I broke down the daily gains and losses across all 365 days of the year: it rose on 162 days and fell on 203.
What’s even more interesting is how much the best days mattered. If you remove the 5 biggest up days from the year, the return changes from about -17% to about -65%. On the other hand, if you avoid just the 5 worst down days, the year’s return would be around +48%.
The biggest moves were clustered together, too. On August 18, it closed at 0.12, its lowest close of the year. Then it rose about 13.6% on August 20, about 30% on the 21st, and about 15.6% on the 22nd. The days with the 1st-, 4th-, and 6th-largest gains of the year all fell just after the low.
That’s also why “waiting for confirmation before getting in” can be costly with small-cap coins: the big up days often come right after things look their worst. By the time you feel safe, those big green candles may already be over. The 5 worst days were scattered across February, July, September, and October, making them almost impossible to avoid in advance.
For futures traders, there’s another side to consider: a 30% gain in a single day would be enough to wipe out the margin on a 5x leveraged short position.
Are you more afraid of missing the best days, or of getting caught in the worst ones?
Data from Binance’s public spot STXUSDT daily candlestick API, as of November 7 at 23:07 Beijing time. The daily candle had not yet closed. Not investment advice.