#非农就业数据推升加息预期
Nonfarm payrolls only delivered the final blow—BTC had already been “killed” once by AI before the data came out
This timeline is the market’s biggest disconnect in perception.
BTC plunged from $81,000 to $75,500 on Thursday night. Its largest 24-hour drop approached 6%, total liquidations across the market topped $1 billion, and 88% of liquidated positions were longs. At the time, the nonfarm payrolls report had yet to be released, and the probability of a December rate hike was still below 75%.
Who was responsible? Not the Fed, but the breakdown of the AI leverage chain. After Democrats swept the midterm elections, voters in 43 of 44 districts supported pausing construction of AI data centers. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%, Nvidia dropped more than 9%, and Micron tumbled 17.5%. The number of hedge funds facing margin calls hit its highest level since 2009. They needed to plug holes in their AI positions—what could they sell fastest? The asset that trades 24 hours a day and has the most liquidity: Bitcoin.
Santiment’s data offers a sobering conclusion: BTC’s 30-day rolling correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has surged to 0.68. It’s now the Nasdaq’s shadow. On the same day, gold rose 0.9%, while BTC fell 5.5%. If the “digital gold” narrative held true, the regulatory uncertainty created by the Democrats’ sweep should have been its moment. But the market voted with its feet: BTC and AI stocks are in the same boat.
The nonfarm payrolls report’s role was to punch another hole in a boat that was already taking on water. It didn’t sink the boat; it just made it sink faster. BTC’s bottom doesn’t depend on Warsh—it depends on when Nvidia and Micron stop falling. Do you agree with the view that “AI is the real culprit, and nonfarm payrolls just delivered the final blow”? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇
$BTC $NVDA #AI_NarrativeWavers #NonfarmFinalBlow #Correlation
Nonfarm payrolls only delivered the final blow—BTC had already been “killed” once by AI before the data came out
This timeline is the market’s biggest disconnect in perception.
BTC plunged from $81,000 to $75,500 on Thursday night. Its largest 24-hour drop approached 6%, total liquidations across the market topped $1 billion, and 88% of liquidated positions were longs. At the time, the nonfarm payrolls report had yet to be released, and the probability of a December rate hike was still below 75%.
Who was responsible? Not the Fed, but the breakdown of the AI leverage chain. After Democrats swept the midterm elections, voters in 43 of 44 districts supported pausing construction of AI data centers. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%, Nvidia dropped more than 9%, and Micron tumbled 17.5%. The number of hedge funds facing margin calls hit its highest level since 2009. They needed to plug holes in their AI positions—what could they sell fastest? The asset that trades 24 hours a day and has the most liquidity: Bitcoin.
Santiment’s data offers a sobering conclusion: BTC’s 30-day rolling correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has surged to 0.68. It’s now the Nasdaq’s shadow. On the same day, gold rose 0.9%, while BTC fell 5.5%. If the “digital gold” narrative held true, the regulatory uncertainty created by the Democrats’ sweep should have been its moment. But the market voted with its feet: BTC and AI stocks are in the same boat.
The nonfarm payrolls report’s role was to punch another hole in a boat that was already taking on water. It didn’t sink the boat; it just made it sink faster. BTC’s bottom doesn’t depend on Warsh—it depends on when Nvidia and Micron stop falling. Do you agree with the view that “AI is the real culprit, and nonfarm payrolls just delivered the final blow”? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇
$BTC $NVDA #AI_NarrativeWavers #NonfarmFinalBlow #Correlation